!Rigged

[TheRisingBlade]

I feel like the blight weapon drops are rigged, due to the fact that i went through the dungeon over 15 times...

 

 

 

AND I STILL DON'T HAVE A *cricket* LYNBLADE. I've literally gotten every other weapon for every other class

 

So is it just RNG trolling me, or is it actually programmed to be this way

[2501]

10 hours ago, TheRisingBlade said:

 I've literally gotten every other weapon for every other class

 

You forgot to add, multiple times. Err, just did some math. 8 classes = 8 chests on average.

 

However, if you're familiar with probability maths, that means you could have one as soon as 1.6 chests, or as late as 40 chests (realistically speaking).

 

If you do the average on the probability, you end up with 19.2 chests (which seems to be the norm for me). Technically, that should gradually reduce to 8 on average... but, not everyone's case is identical.

 

It could of course take 100 chests, or forever... Such is the nature of probability/RNGesus.

 

This should NEVER, EVER, UNDER PUNISHMENT OF DEATH be part of the progression cycle.

 

I know of other games which have done this, and eventually removed that system, because they actually understood the nature of probability and why it sucks as a progression mechanic (ie: people endlessly stuck at progression).

 

Which begs the question: what sort of MMORPG designer doesn't understand this simple fact? I'd rather not speculate... it was probably a management decision.

 

----

 

After opening 8 chests, according to probability, you only have a 66% chance of obtaining your item.

 

16 chests, 88%, 32 chests, 96%, 48 chests, 99.8%, up to infinity, etc...

 

In other words: 12% of players will need more than 16 chests (1 in 8), 4% of players will need more than 32 (1 in 25), and 0.2% of players will need more than 48 (1 in 500).

 

[897971_1452550635]

I run the dungeon 100 times exactly,

only one time drop the assasin weapon, my fm weapon drop 7 times of 100, the blade drop 2 times, the axe drop like almost all the time,

outfit drop 4 times, good luck trying to get your weapon, be ready to grind like there is no tomorrow, you may get it in few runs or ....

[Lock6]

Hi,

 

Sorry to hear you've been having bad luck.

 

I can assure you the drop rates are not rigged in any way, it's just that sometimes you can roll a dice 60 times and not get a single 6.

 

You will get your drop eventually.

[FasterThanLight]

Yeah.. the rates can get a bit annoying sometimes but actually yesterday I gained my Infernal Dagger on first run :P

[2501]

26 minutes ago, Lock6 said:

I can assure you the drop rates are not rigged in any way, it's just that sometimes you can roll a dice 60 times and not get a single 6.

 

You will get your drop eventually.

 

Unless you consider probabilities as 'rigging', which they are.

 

Eventually? That's a rather loaded term in regards to probability maths.

 

Fix, thanks.

 

As per my in-game conversation, it seems this was done to get people to buy starter pack/viridian key. A great example of what not to do.

 

If you're going to stick to the F2P model, at least allow players to progress without the 'nag'.

 

Otherwise, it seems scammy, as one cannot properly evaluate the product at that stage in the game (not until end-game honestly). Which is just another reason why the meta F2P model fails.

 

[Lock6]

 

20 minutes ago, 2501 said:

 

Eventually? That's a rather loaded term in regards to probability maths.

 

Fix, thanks.

 

 

Hi,

 

My statement is correct, you just haven't figured out why yet.

[Kyrrua]

You have a 100% key on the surveys.

Best thing was to wait until to get to blackram narrows and use it instead of wasting it right away.

[2501]

9 hours ago, Lock6 said:

 

My statement is correct, you just haven't figured out why yet.

 

What do you mean, figured out? Have you figured out probability maths? That has no relevance on what I posted in regard to that: 4% of players will require 32 chests or more, some may never get one, period.

 

There's an achievement for +400 hp, after killing Devourer 10 times. That's the closest I can get to an answer. But that's about 16 chests, not the 32-48+ which some players will experience.

 

However, it just proves my statement that Blackram is a F2P-gated dungeon (no coincidence it's the only one in main campaign, and very near the start). All other main quest line dungeons can be solo'd.

 

Care to tell us why, for the record? Otherwise, can we dismiss your comment?

 

In fact, I'm pretty sure that players don't have 32 keys at that point in time.

 

9 hours ago, Kyrrua said:

You have a 100% key on the surveys.

 

No key... maybe premium only. Which further proves the hypothesis that this is a F2P-gated dungeon, and the only one in the game.

[Clerith]

While I've gotten my Stalker Jiangshi weapon, Blight weapon, Deva weapon all on first or second try... heh.

 

RNG is RNG.

[2501]

6 minutes ago, Clerith said:

While I've gotten my Stalker Jiangshi weapon, Blight weapon, Deva weapon all on first or second try... heh.

 

RNG is RNG.

 

1st or 2nd? Sec, I'll do the math (assuming 1st, 1st, 2nd):

 

That seems very unlikely, it amounts to a 0.4% chance of that occurring, although not impossible, 0.4% of players will experience this outcome (1 in 250).

[Dradiinmmo]

I spent 6 hours farming Narrows for my dumb staff. I learned how to play my class well, i made friends, and i even joined a clan from all of that.

 

Course, others will just make a thread and complain.

[fatalystic]

Ehh...I got my Blight Sword from the second box I opened. I got my Stalker Sword on my third try back at an earlier level. And my Corrupted Sword on my third run of Darkglimpse, I believe.

[LordLokai]

i've noticed that lynblade is unusually rare go check market... lynblades cost like triple what everyone elses costs. I got my bangle for 5 silver, my friend had to pay 21 silver for his breakthrough lynblade not sure what the deal with it is. But i suspect it has something to do with rarity of lynblades...

 

Edit:

also i noticed warlock items are actually dropping so factor that into the game to. I've got 1 or 2 warlock items during my play...

[fatalystic]

1 hour ago, LordLokai said:

i've noticed that lynblade is unusually rare go check market... lynblades cost like triple what everyone elses costs. I got my bangle for 5 silver, my friend had to pay 21 silver for his breakthrough lynblade not sure what the deal with it is. But i suspect it has something to do with rarity of lynblades...

 

Edit:

also i noticed warlock items are actually dropping so factor that into the game to. I've got 1 or 2 warlock items during my play...

 

I keep getting lots of Lynblades, actually. Though I usually see Gauntlets and Axes...I think.

 

EDIT: Oh, that was for Stalker weapons. In the case of Blight, the boss seems to drop a lot of Bangles.

[ChibiReaper]

Why cant they make the weapon drops from chests tradeable?

[Kathars1s]

RNG is RNG.

The only thing that burns me is the Warlock weapon drops. Dropping something that's useless to everyone..

[EhUEHUHE]

5 hours ago, TheRisingBlade said:

I feel like the blight weapon drops are rigged, due to the fact that i went through the dungeon over 15 times...

 

 

 

AND I STILL DON'T HAVE A *cricket* LYNBLADE. I've literally gotten every other weapon for every other class

 

So is it just RNG trolling me, or is it actually programmed to be this way

So you're complaining about RNG lol

[Ord]

Another whine thread...

 

Seriously people, stop expecting to get everything handed to you on a silver platter...

 

I've played multiple mmorpgs for the past 13 years and they're all the same.

 

You need to put in time and effort into getting what you want/need. Never expect everything to drop on the first few tries.

[2501]

4 hours ago, ChibiReaper said:

Why cant they make the weapon drops from chests tradeable?

 

Many are, but blight is one exception (another indication of what I mean).

 

Simply put; because of the meta F2P model. This model REQUIRES that items be made non-tradable, in order to drive cash-shop item sales.

 

ie: the monetization model dictates game mechanics and content.

 

No other reason. Blame this poorly conceived model, which everyone has cut+pasted.

[2501]

On 1/24/2016 at 4:34 AM, Lock6 said:

Hi

 

To add to my response, I will now quote user experience from other threads (to collect all in one location):

 

23 hours ago, ThatCrazyBtch said:

i know how you feel, i had to open over 40 to get my golden deva staff.

 

23 hours ago, 897897_1452550634 said:

ive gotten tons of Axes from those chests on my summoner...got staff after like 18+ tries.

 

23 hours ago, ouija said:

tfw 20 boxes and all 20 were bangles, how does that even happen. just scour the maps for dailies to get more keys, then get on your knees and pray to the rng gods, man. 

 

The 'probabilities' are endless. Will post more when I get the chance, busy cooking.

 

22 hours ago, Lienn said:

 got over 5 of each other weapon before i get my deva staff

 

22 hours ago, KoreanMaster said:

I*cricket*ING 7 HOURS AND NO *cricket*ING BLADE

 

21 hours ago, DabMarley said:

I finally had to break down and spend $5 dollars and buy the damn key after being lvl 22-23 for 3 days of grinding that boring ass dungeon.

 

Next batch. However, you can do the maths yourself, if you don't believe me.

 

On 1/20/2016 at 2:26 AM, Diradem said:

Took me between 20-25 this time around.

 

On 1/22/2016 at 9:28 PM, EclipseZwolf said:

I have currently opened 37 of the chests and not gotten a single axe. just got an axe on my 39th chest.

 

On 1/22/2016 at 9:37 PM, Killeon said:

I've had to farm 20~ runs for Blackram Narrow, +30 Golden Devas chests

 

17 hours ago, aye said:

Yeah, I just got 2 swords, 8 lynblades, 4 gauntlets, 2 axes, 6 daggers and 8 staffs with no simple bangle for force master, thats 30 keys.

 

15 hours ago, Bayani said:

RIP I've spent 24 keys and still haven't got my gauntlet.

 

15 hours ago, avaricesapphiredc said:

I bought a Brilliant key after my 30th box in Blackram Narrows. 

 

8 hours ago, Pistola said:

I spinned the wheel over 30 times! Every chest I open I get other classes weapons. I just want a Golden Deva Axe to transform my weapon!!

 

5 minutes ago, LeoCab said:

Well... i got 32 weapons and no one is the Axe.

 

Just now, getmonkedson said:

i have opened 50+ chest still looking for my guantlet

 

No need to comment if you receive a 'quoted your post' alert. This is for documentation purposes only.

[DabMarley]

1 hour ago, 2501 said:

 

So you're saying this is a persisting problem for almost everyone

[2501]

10 minutes ago, DabMarley said:

So you're saying this is a persisting problem for almost everyone

 

It affects a percentage of users (hence RNG). Some will have a 'poor experience', others will have an 'excellent experience'.

 

Just check the math above: 12% of players (1 in 8) will need more than 16 chests, 4% (1 in 25) will need more than 32, 0.2% (1 in 500) will need more than 48.

 

For the record: 16 'chances' is approx. 10 runs (includes daily, chests, and boss drops/bids).

 

Note: You still need 10 runs, for the Making Waves achievement, which gives +400 HP (another apparent oddity, as far as dungeons go).

 

None of this is based on anecdotal evidence; pure math. However, I've included anecdotal evidence now, to add a 'personal' element to this.

 

[SuperBlade]

The trick is to save up 10~20 chest, and open them altogether, because the chances are 1/8, if you just open one, it will always be 1/8, sometimes later another 1/8. But having a lot open together, the chance multiplies and your probability increases. I know is logically hard to make since but I been doing this ever since the the CN and TW server, always have my weapon within 20 chest. For those super hard to obtain chest, poh might be the case, just pitch a bit of money and get the brilliant key

[2501]

5 minutes ago, SuperBlade said:

The trick is to save up 10~20 chest, and open them altogether, because the chances are 1/8,

 

They aren't. That's not how probabilities function. 8 chests = 66% to obtain, not 100%. Timing also has no effect.

 

In fact, if you wait until the end of the universe, there will undoubtedly be some user who never obtains one after 1000+ chests.