Analize This! Chi-Squared Moonstones.

[DomiSotto]

 

I am not sure if this would help, but the community representative spoke yesterday about statistics based on an individual player's experience in respect to the RNG as a way to bring potential problems with the RNG to the developers' attention. He's mentioned a specific type of the statistical analysis that tests expected vs observed outcome, the chi-squared analysis.

 

I suppose it cannot really be done here because frankly we do not know if getting 1 key on 100 independent test is what is actually expected, but this is a large, valid statistical sample showing in my view just how unbalanced the rewards are in SSP to the need to obtain them, and the efforts put in.

 

I want to make a particular note that to even accumulate the 100 chests the player at least on my server has to have a very decent gear set, way exceeding the gear threshold when moonstones begin to be required in quantities >5.

 

In a layman's terms... This sucks.

[DomiSotto]

7 minutes ago, Abysmal said:

Can you give me the data?

Also, what I don't think chi-squared is the correct test...

The mod suggested running chi-squared to support claims that the RNG drop rate was changed between one patch and the next. I don't think in this case an advanced statistical analysis is even warranted because there is frankly no room left for a duality of opinions on the outcome.

 

The user conducted the independent test to get or not get a drop 100 times and succeeded only once. This RNG rate belongs with the items like costumes, not with the items you need by the hundred.

[Abysmal]

Can you give me the data?

Also, what I don't think chi-squared is the correct test...

[Windbrand]

Player + fact in reality: your RNG is bullshit

NCS: thanks for the compliment. That's great, now we have more ideas for cash shop pay2win items. Happy spending in our cash shop

 

The fate of every "free to play" MMO.

[KlausFlouride]

Be realistic, they cannot support the game with zero revenue stream. This isn't a charity or other non-profit. Do you wanna see ad's all over in the game?

[Windbrand]

5 minutes ago, KlausFlouride said:

Be realistic, they cannot support the game with zero revenue stream. This isn't a charity or other non-profit. Do you wanna see ad's all over in the game?

Sure why not? Ads on loading screens or even a permanent ad banner at the bottom is still 100x better than RNG bullshit.

[KlausFlouride]

Game companies do studies to find out what best suits their target gamers and what we got is it. Most NA based games like this have some sort of cash shop to cover the costs of the f2p peeps. You can call them whatever derogatory term you want (ie whales, etc.) but at the end of the day they are keeping the servers/updates rolling. They earn absolutely zero off f2w peeps.

[DomiSotto]

11 minutes ago, KlausFlouride said:

Be realistic, they cannot support the game with zero revenue stream. This isn't a charity or other non-profit. Do you wanna see ad's all over in the game?

No, I want sub benefits that make it possible to play a game casually, leaving the current 'game is life' and 'do you even mmo, bro?' version for the F2P. BnS has a lot of appealing features, but its reliance on impulse buys due to the gearing structure is not a long-term marketing strategy. They had enough content saved up to make a bid for subscription model in my view. After what had happened to the Wildstar, you'd have thought that would allow for the fact that running a MMO for the leet and those willing to pay to pretend they are is not a recipe for a large and stable player-base.

 

At a guess, they will casualize the game after the PvP Tournament will fall like a stone in the West. Once the 'we are so cool and leet" crowd leaves in a huff the way they always do during the first year, well, then they will start considering the majority of the gamers that are never as good as they think they are.

[KlausFlouride]

I didn't play the other game but I do know the sub route doesn't work. Most games that had subs went either f2p or went under completely. The state this game is in I seriously doubt they could modify it enough to convert it to a sub. A lot of f2p would bail completely because (see above) they didn't want a sub.

 

FWIW I played a sub based MMO, Everquest and EQ2, for many years and the progression was rather different. It took months to upgrade a single slot which could only be done through a 24 man raid, not the travesty that is 24 man in this game.

[DomiSotto]

1 hour ago, KlausFlouride said:

I didn't play the other game but I do know the sub route doesn't work. Most games that had subs went either f2p or went under completely. The state this game is in I seriously doubt they could modify it enough to convert it to a sub. A lot of f2p would bail completely because (see above) they didn't want a sub.

They don't have to convert it completely. I like SWTOR's model, which makes a distinction between the active sub, past sub and F2P. On-going sub benefits made the game fairly accessible while I was playing (and by the time I left they were selling an open-world solo game pretty much). 

 

I wish BnS did not make you grind the sub for a while before seeing significant benefits. Right now, funny enough, I don't pay the sub by the simple reason that I get pretty much the same product for free. They give me zero incentives to spend any money at all. I was thinking maybe I should throw 100 bucks or so on the NC coins... but I do not see the reason why. There is simply nothing to spend it on that will improve my day to day game experience.

 

I can either purchase more grind in forms of the unlocks (and I have not even used up the ones from the wheel) or  light the RNG candles with the bill.

 

It's really, really weird how they handle the sub benefits.