New outfit event: Favorite Fantasy Outfit Chest and Urband Legend outfit chances

[NorbertTheOpinionated]

EDIT: Below was my initial working presumption that I clearly stated was rough unconfirmed guesswork, which has proven to be wrong, so let it not be said that no one on the internet can admit they were wrong. I am pleased to be proven wrong since things are not as bad as it seemed that the tool-tips suggested. An updated price estimate is in a post I made further down, which is also based on guesswork, but is more updated, ever so slightly less rough guesswork now that we have more information.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quick note at the beginning: "Overtime" is an outfit that is supposedly in these Favorite Fantasy Outfit Chests, but it isn't an item you can look up in the showroom. That is probably a bug.

 

WHAT ARE YOUR CHANCES OF GETTING THE URBAN LEGEND OUTFIT? LETS TAKE OUR BEST GUESS BEFORE BUYING ANYTHING. THAT IS WHAT THIS POST IS ABOUT.

 

Alright so NCsoft has a new 2B outfit from Nier Automata called Urban Legend. It is obvious they know that is the one that is going to be the most desired because that is the one that is by far the most expensive in the dragon express for 80 Fantasy Emblems.

 

The problem with this is that I would prefer to just be able to buy it outright for money or earn it. I really don't want to do this RNG box.

 

You have to buy these Favorite Fantasy Outfit Chests, and open them. The patch notes state: "Opening these chests will yield a costume at random, but if you don’t want what you receive, you can salvage it for Fantasy Emblems—a currency you can spend in the Dragon Express for other costumes from the Favorite Fantasy Outfit Chest, as well as a few unique extras."

 

Well we know that NCsoft weights your chances to get things out of boxes differently. For example, you might have a 10% chance to get this one outfit while you might have a 2% chance to get this other item, so we have no clue what our chances are to get what outfit. Furthermore, there are 15 different outfits you can get from that chest, but only 6 of them can be traded in for Fantasy Emblems.

 

If it operates as stated giving you 1 outfit per time you open a Favorite Fantasy Outfit chest, and all chances are equal (this is a dangerous assumption), then you only have a 6/15 = 40% chance of getting an outfit that will even yield you any Fantasy Emblems.

 

Then when you trade the outfit out for Fantasy Emblems, you get 10 or 1-3 Fantasy Emblems depending on what outfit you are trading in. Now we have seen how NCsoft operates in the past. When they say 1-3. Often times you don't have an equal chance to get 1, 2, or 3. Often times you have a 70% chance to get 1, a 20% chance to get 2, and a 10% chance to get 3. SO... Let's do the math.

 

Let's just operate on the admittedly unconfirmed guess work that I have put forth for now because NCsoft refuses to tell us what the chances of getting anything out of a box actually is so therefore... I am going to go by my experience with NCsoft and how they do things like this in the past.

 

So you want the Urban Legend outfit, and you are terrible at RNG, so you are going to have to buy enough of these lootboxes. You buy the boxes 10 at a time so they are 108 Ncoin each for the 10% reduction in price. You need 80 Fantasy Emblems to get the Urban Legend Outfit. You have a 40% chance each time you open a box to get an item that can turn into Fantasy Emblems for you. Only 1 in 5 of those gets you 10 Fantasy Emblems. The others get you 1-3, and it is weighted, like I said, to favor giving you a lower amount.

 

Let's say you buy 50 loot boxes. (Yes I am going to call them lootboxes because that is what they are. Everyone hates lootboxes, but NCsoft hasn't learned from what happened to EA with Star Wars Battlefront 2 because NCsoft hasn't personally been slapped hard enough for it, so they have loot boxes in the game anyway because we as players let them get away with it instead of screaming loudly enough to get them to quit, which is what we SHOULD do, but I digress.)

 

30 of those loot boxes were wasted money.

20 of those lootboxes will have something you can trade in for Fantasy Emblems.

Of those 20 loot boxes (because you are terrible at RNG like me) will not have the outfit you want in them.

Assuming each of the other outfits is equally likely to be in there (a wild assumption on my part), then 16 of those 20 will be worth 1-3 Fantasy Emblems and 4 will be worth the 10 Fantasy Emblems.

4x10 = 40 Fantasy emblems.

The layout of the 1-3 per outfit is going to end up something approximately like 11 of the 16 were worth 1 each. 3 were worth 2 each, and 2 were worth 3 each, so that is 23 more Fantasy Emblems.

So far we have 63 Fantasy Emblems. We need 80, so we need another 17

50 boxes got us 63 Fantasy Emblems so on average we might get about 1.26 Fantasy Emblems per box we open. 17/1.26 = 13.49 and rounding doesn't work because you either have the emblems or you don't. Therefore, we will need to open about another 14 lootboxes.

 

So just based on previous experience with opening NCsoft items, and some loose math, I am totally GUESSING that we need about 64 lootboxes. They are 108 Ncoin each. 1 Ncoin = $0.0125 each. 64 boxes x 108 Ncoin = 6912 Ncoin = $86.40 for the Urban Legend Outfit.

 

You want it? I am guessing it is about $85-87 on average. Break open your wallet Piggy Bank. Also remember... that is the average, which means half of the people are going to have to buy more boxes than that.

 

Hey NCsoft, why not just sell it for 6999 Ncoin and call it a day? Oh that's right... because people would freak out that you want such an absurd about of money for a digital outfit that you can replicate an infinite number of times. Then you would have to lower the price or not sell very many, but you don't want to do that because the bottom line is that there are a lot of people who ARE stupid enough to spend tons of money without knowing the chances of getting what they want, and NCsoft wants to take advantage of them, some of them being children who are going to get mommy and daddy to buy some boxes for them for what is basically gambling, but doesn't technically meet the legal definition of it... yet. This makes me sad that the human race isn't smarter because they fall prey to stuff like this.

 

$85 is more money than it would cost to go buy Nier Automata: the entire game and then ACTUALLY play as 2B! NCsoft wants to trick people into spending tons of money because those people wouldn't be willing to spend that much money for the outfit if NCsoft was clear about how much it costs. Doesn't that seem... hmm... dishonest, and slum lordish?

 

I mean... I would welcome accurate numbers though if NCsoft wants to produce them like they should have on all their open-able loot in the past. *looks at NCsoft*

 

 

[Granger]

vor 33 Minuten schrieb NorbertTheOpinionated:

Then you would have to lower the price or not sell very many, but you don't want to do that because the bottom line is that there are a lot of people who ARE stupid enough to spend tons of money without knowing the chances of getting what they want

thats one of the primary reasons why gaming corporations have started using lootboxes. Price obstruction. 

[Showta]

So, to put it simply;

 

This set costs about $100.

It has 1 hat, 1 body costume, and 1 pair of mini wings.
It does 1 special emoticon
You can dye it

Lets compare it to the Grand Phoenix set.
1 hat, 1 body costume, 1 pair of averagely sized wings, 1 ultimate skin pet
1 special emoticon
You can dye it

Grand Phoenix was $50.

"But Showta, why was the Grand Phoenix set $50 while the Urban Legend set is $100?"
Oh, well, silly idiot who still thinks NCWest values any of you in any way shape or form, the very simple reason for that is because you might get it for cheaper. There you go! There we have it! 80 tokens isn't bad at all anymore, because you might get lucky and not have to pay $100 (but most of you will, you absolutely will have to pay $100 for one costume set).

 

NOWW now, I know what you're thinking...
"But Showta, isn't $100 just a little outrageous?? How are any of us who can't afford to swipe supposed to afford that when gold from all dailies that arent solak were nerfed so hard?"
Easy! Thank you for asking, glad you took the time!
You don't. If you don't have money, this isn't the game for you. Both gear and costumes now take months of farming to be able to afford. If you get one, be prepared to sacrifice the other for a considerable amount of time. Your happiness, apparently, has nothing to do with NC's survive-ability. You can all quit as much as you'd like. They won't mind nor care even the tiniest of bit.

If you find their business practices to be cruel, oh well! Try somewhere else. But chances are wherever you go next will have RNG boxes and then get greedy and hike costumes up to $100 there too. So the best answer would be to find a new hobby until the laws regarding RNG boxes get pushed through.

Alright goodluck everyone!!

[Grimzy]

So to put it even simplier:

 

Its a costume, its a cosmetic item that does not influence your gameplay in any way, shape or form.

Its mainly for fashion fanatics.  you are clearly informed on the fact its a loot box with RNG, you clearly know what rng is and you know what you need to get it guaranteed.

 

So....spending any 1$ is your own decision which you consciously take. And since there are people actually buying these and the company makes profit....they dont need to care even.

[NorbertTheOpinionated]

4 minutes ago, HateMe said:

So to put it even simplier:

 

Its a costume, its a cosmetic item that does not influence your gameplay in any way, shape or form.

Its mainly for fashion fanatics.  you are clearly informed on the fact its a loot box with RNG, you clearly know what rng is and you know what you need to get it guaranteed.

 

So....spending any 1$ is your own decision which you consciously take. And since there are people actually buying these and the company makes profit....they dont need to care even.

 

 

Well, that doesn't give us any indication of, on average, even a ballpark idea of how much the outfit would cost you to get if you wanted it based on previous data though.

 

What other people do with their money doesn't really concern me, but I thought it might be something of a public service to offer an idea of how much this could cost you before you start spending all kinds of money if you are thinking about going for it.

 

I wanted an approximate number based on as much of an educated guess as I could get BEFORE spending any money on it. I figured it out as close as I could figure using some rough math and precious experience, and then posted it for anyone else to see since I think other people might like to have an idea of what it might be like.

[MsXBlackRose]

Wait...not every outfit can be salvaged for emblems? What kind of bs is that :s im about to buy 50 chests but now...idk. Which 6 outfits are salvageble for emblem?

[NorbertTheOpinionated]

55 minutes ago, MsXBlackRose said:

Wait...not every outfit can be salvaged for emblems? What kind of bs is that :s im about to buy 50 chests but now...idk. Which 6 outfits are salvageble for emblem?

Beat Cop is worth 10 Fantasy Emblems.

Urban Legend is worth 10 Fantasy Emblems.

Birthright is worth 1-3 Fantasy Emblems.

Demoniac is worth 1-3

Summer School is worth 1-3

Viceroy is worth 1-3

 

The others are cannot be Salvaged for Fantasy Emblems at all.

 

For the record, Overtime MIGHT be able to be salvaged for Fantasy Emblems, but we cannot assume that because if you look Overtime up in the showroom, it doesn't show up, and it also isn't listed in the Dragon Express in the event tab. Therefore I assumed that it cannot be traded in for Fantasy Emblems. It might not even be in the box for all we know. After all, how is NCsoft going to give you an outfit that the game seemingly does not know how to display? Seems like a bug to me.

 

I am glad to see someone got some use out of this thread by having enough information to think twice before dumping over 50 bucks into NCsoft's coffers, and then getting screwed by some technicalities / easily overlooked details.

 

[Cesura]

31 minutes ago, NorbertTheOpinionated said:

The others are cannot be Salvaged for Fantasy Emblems at all.

 

This is false. 
I've opened a few boxes, and from what I can tell, all the other outfits salvage for one emblem. 

The outfits that are re-releases; the 'old' version tooltip is in the wardrobe but if you actually buy and open the box you can salvage it, or at least the ones I got where worth one token each. 
(For confirmation: 3 boxes bought with hmcoin; Nomad and Entertainers Will both crunched to 1 token each, tooltip listed it as a single guaranteed token) 

[NorbertTheOpinionated]

3 minutes ago, Cesura said:

This is false. 
I've opened a few boxes, and from what I can tell, all the other outfits salvage for one emblem. 

The outfits that are re-releases; the 'old' version tooltip is in the wardrobe but if you actually buy and open the box you can salvage it, or at least the ones I got where worth one token each. 

Really? Well this is good information!

 

5 hours ago, Showta said:

But chances are wherever you go next will have RNG boxes and then get greedy and hike costumes up to $100 there too. So the best answer would be to find a new hobby until the laws regarding RNG boxes get pushed through.

You know, I was highly considering doing exactly that. Watching anime is a good option instead of playing games. Could also buy the actual Nier Automata game, and play that too since it is singleplayer, and if my computer can run B&S it can probably run Nier reasonably well too.

[MsXBlackRose]

41 minutes ago, NorbertTheOpinionated said:

The others are cannot be Salvaged for Fantasy Emblems at all.

Thats weird cause i bought 3 chest yesterday (2 strictly business and another ugly one) and i salvaged 1 business for 1 emblem so i thought this was 1 of the 6 you mentioned...maybe 6 outfits are salvageble for more then 1 emblem and then others are just 1 emblem?

[NorbertTheOpinionated]

Alright. Let me go buy a few boxes. I am willing to put my money where my mouth is.

 

Ok! The tooltip in the showroom is not accurate. To confirm what Cesura was saying, You can actually salvage the older outfits for Fantasy Emblems even though the tooltip in the showroom does not say you can. The tooltip on the items you get from the box is different than the tooltip in the showroom, and also different from the tooltip if you have any of these old outfits. I got Entertainer's Will, and was able to salvage it for 1, but it specified that it was only worth 1; not 1-3, so that is good to know! That changes the formula dramatically. It is much more reasonable now.

 

Allow me to redo the math:

 

Once again, lacking more accurate data, I will presume that all the older outfits are worth 1 Fantasy Emblem each. Still going on the presumption of 1 outfit each box. 15 potential options.

 

50 boxes will get you approximately 93 Fantasy Emblems if the rest of my numbers are accurate, which I admitted that they might not be in my original post saying it was guess work, loose math, previous experience, and working on what the tooltips in game said. Using this new formula, it looks like you get around 1.86 Emblems per box. 80/1.86 means you would need to buy around 43 boxes, which would be 4644 Ncoin, which is $58.05. That is still unreasonable in my opinion, but not nearly as bad as $85-87.

 

 

[Kaigame]

Well, i must be lucky then, opened 1 box with the few hm coin that i had and i got the outfit. It's ok, not the best outfit i've got but i'll take it.

 

Thankfully i don't have to spend anything on it. RNG is rarely my friend.