Daily Dash scam - Math wizards please read

[pikapikapika]

Cast the die 13 times, and got "1" 5 times.  What is the odds?  Thanks.

 

[IAmWho]

I wish I roll 1 everytime so I will never miss the rewards I wanted.

[SilverFoxR]

It's not a scam... you just have bad luck.

[Ludicium]

You do realize that each number has a different chance of 'being rolled' right? That's why the plate for the number '1' is larger than, say, the plate for number '6'. The higher the number.. the lower the chance you have of rolling it.

 

I don't think you got scammed at all.

 

(we'd need a much larger sample size in order to determine the rates though.. 13 rolls is nothing - that's less than a weeks worth of membership rolls)

[Neog]

If the chances of getting any number was equal, you should get "1" around 2 times, but the illustration of the wheel suggests you have a higher chance of getting one, it is more than 90 degrees, which means more than 25% so around 4 times. Considering 13 is a small sample I'd say 5 seems totally fine.

[RavTH]

When you roll 1 and that's all you need for venture token, but that 1 turns out to be 2...

good it's patched tho.

[CastielSeven]

6 hours ago, pikapikapika said:

  What is the odds?  Thanks.

 

 

the odds are 1 out of 6. 

[Ludicium]

I decided to try and find the odds because I'm slightly curious too. So, if we are to assume that the picture is 100% accurate:

 

Out of 100%

We can see that 1 is slightly greater than 25%, 4 and 6 equates to the chance of rolling a 1. Part of 5 and 6 along with a whole 2 will take up another 25%, and 3 and 5 is self-explanatory.

 

Seeing as 4 slices make up 25%, each slice should be 6.25%

 

So by that count, 1 should be 25% + 3% (as half of 6.25% is 3.125%, but it isn't exactly taking up half of 6.25% so I shall assume it is 3%) - taking away 0.125%

 

4 should be 3 x 6.25% which gives us 18.75% however, it isn't exactly taking up the full 3rd of the slice, so lets just estimate and assume it is 18.7% - taking away 0.05%

 

As for 6, we know chances for 6 and 4 will give us the chance for 1, so 28% - 18.7% gives us 9.3% (which also makes sense as half of 6.25% is 3.125%)

 

With 2, if we remove the bottom east of 6, and move in the south cut of 2, we can see that it just about takes up 18.75%, so let's just leave that number there for now, I am sure it will be slightly larger than that but, we can figure that out later.

 

3 and 5 are tricky, let's work with 5 first, 5 by itself is almost just as big as 6, taking up a little more than 6.25%, however, it is a big bigger than 6, so let's leave 5 at 9.3% for now.

 

As for 3, we can tell that it covers at least 12.5% due to the comparison made with the number 4, however, the third piece only covers half of what 4's third piece covers, so with that in mind, if we take 12.5% + 3.125%, it should give us 15.625% for 3.

 

Taking all of that, it will give us a total of 99.675%, but remember, we still have 2 and 5. Comparing what we have left to deal with 2 and 5, it is safe to say that the size in which we have left to deal with are decimal points, seeing as the pixels we have left to deal with from 2 is much larger than that of 5, let's just assign the majority of the decimals we have left to 2 and the rest to 5 - because.. frankly.. NCwest/soft don't give 2 shits about micro-pixels/how accurate they are, etc. So, 2 is 18.75 + 0.3% which gives us 19.05% as for 5; 9.3% + 0.025% gives us 9.325%

 

So, just for laughs:

1 = 28%

2 = 19.05%

3 = 15.625%

4 = 18.7%

5 = 9.325%

6 = 9.3%

 

Hope..this is what you were asking for OP... I can't believe I just wasted my time doing this.

[Youmukon]

The visual representation of the Daily Dash wheel in-game isn't pixel-accurate when it comes to actual rates server-side. While very close (yes you do have more chance to roll a "1"), for aesthetic reasons it does not exactly match. The intent of having the wheel designed that way was to make it clear to players that they weren't rolling a fair dice-6 where the probability of getting a 1 or 6 is exactly the same. The mean of the Daily Dash wheel is slightly lower than the one from a fair dice-6.

 

[Ludicium]

50 minutes ago, Youmukon said:

The visual representation of the Daily Dash wheel in-game isn't pixel-accurate when it comes to actual rates server-side. While very close (yes you do have more chance to roll a "1"), for aesthetic reasons it does not exactly match. The intent of having the wheel designed that way was to make it clear to players that they weren't rolling a fair dice-6 where the probability of getting a 1 or 6 is exactly the same. The mean of the Daily Dash wheel is slightly lower than the one from a fair dice-6.

 

Haha, good to know XD It was fun trying to figure out the ratio nevertheless ^^ but yeah, OP, I still don't think you got scammed. Just like the other players have said, just unlucky.

[Korlat]

So I have had a round with only rolls of 1 and 2. And I rolled 1 all of 9 times tho not all in a row. I remember commenting in faction chat that the odds for that must be very low, but if the die is fixed so that there is a higher chance of rolling 1 than a 1 through 6 would suggest, then all bets are off. 

 

My better half had a round where he rolled only 1s and 2s as well, but way more 1s than me. I finished another round before he got through his first one. 

 

 

I dont mind rolling a lot of 1s, because then I get all the rewards I want, I do mind rolling all 1s for 4-6 throws and then rolling a 2 or 3 if the next 1 would land my on a starred field. This happens alot. 

[pikapikapika]

in the past i rarely roll 1.  the chance of rolling 1 must increased like 10x in the past 3 months.

[Rastei]

They call rng to probability lol.

 

I mean if you have 70% chances on somthing and 0,5 %chances on another, thats nor Random, thats ❤ ❤ ❤ ❤ing probabilty calculated statics.

 

Random is when you have 50% chances in the both things.

[Granger]

 

vor 31 Minuten schrieb Rastei:

They call rng to probability lol.

 

I mean if you have 70% chances on somthing and 0,5 %chances on another, thats nor Random, thats ❤ ❤ ❤ ❤ing probabilty calculated statics.

 

Random is when you have 50% chances in the both things.

Probability IS rng... for a success (soul to upgrade) we have a probability of 10%.

 

One roll is 10%. Two rolls is 10% twice.
Two successes is 1%, 1 success and 1 failure is 18%, 2 failures is 81%.

 

Go back to highschool mate... 

[Zordrage]

i wish i could roll 1 allways till the end.... except on the dumplings of course...

would get ALL that juicy Mats and reagents.....
Instead of always jumping through and miss the best and most rare reagents/mats because i rolled 5 or 6

btw this topic is stupid lol
it DOES NOT matter if you roll allot of 1 or not hell it does not matter WHAT you roll...
all that matters is where you will land on the dash board after each roll and whats on that place...

[IAmWho]

28 minutes ago, Zordrage said:

i wish i could roll 1 allways till the end.... except on the dumplings of course...

would get ALL that juicy Mats and reagents.....
Instead of always jumping through and miss the best and most rare reagents/mats because i rolled 5 or 6

btw this topic is stupid lol
it DOES NOT matter if you roll allot of 1 or not hell it does not matter WHAT you roll...
all that matters is where you will land on the dash board after each roll and whats on that place...

Totally Agreed. 

It is dumb if you would rather roll 6 all the time and miss all those mats.