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Wing Drop Rate Probably 0.1% at Best


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Greetings. To preempt the people that don't care about the wings: Good for you, but this post concerns people that actually like the wings and may think they have a reasonable chance of getting them without powering through to 100 leaves (which btw have more or less been confirmed to drop at a chance of 20%). Given a sample size of 0 wings dropped out of 1100 boxes, combined from 5 people, one can mathematically deduce what the actual drop rate could be for the wings. Is it 1%? Too generous, 0.99^1100 (meaning the chance of 1100 boxes failing at 99% in a row) is astronomically low. Is it 0.5%? Still too generous; 0.995^1100 means a 4% chance of failing like we did. Finally, lowering the drop rate further to 0.1% means 0.999^1100 basically means a 1 in 3 chance that 1100 boxes in a row would fail, which is more plausible. So there you have it, the drop rate is either non-existent or 0.1% at best. Be prepared to purchase at least 500 boxes if you really want them wings.

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United States should seriously consider a law like the Chinese one to always display the item droprates of RNG box. And the worst is that even so, we're not protected from RNG bugs, like you know the trove with the 0% gem droprate from previous trove that has to be instantly fixed ?

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56 minutes ago, Riss77 said:

United States should seriously consider a law like the Chinese one to always display the item droprates of RNG box. And the worst is that even so, we're not protected from RNG bugs, like you know the trove with the 0% gem droprate from previous trove that has to be instantly fixed ?

well...with the RNG bugs you mentioned, you know that they don't have to publicly announce it to players. They can ninja fix the rate during maintenance time (if they are evil as you suggested here). In fact, they announced it and gave double keys to the players who used their keys during the RNG bug without rolling back all their items. What else do players want? 

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I desperately wanted those wings but now I officially know that the game won't ever let me have them. Thanks NCsoft, you suck.

 

 

Why can't cosmetics be boiled down to "You want? You buy?" like with TitanFall 2? Why does there have to be an RNG box in the way? I got Tempting Fate 3 times in the boxes I got and I didn't even care for it. I mean, the boxes have basically destroyed the market with items like Spirit Stones and Masterwork Soulshield packs losing all value they once had, but even then, that seems to be the only thing that it did asides emptying out my wallet.

 

Note to self: never buy anything from NCsoft ever again.

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There is someone on reddit that bought 568 and didn't see a single pair of wings but eventually bought it with the maple leaves. If your aim is to get the wings only then it's not worth it and best to wait until wings are put into the store directly to buy.

I notice that the game heavily fks over people that love cosmetics, always making rng chances incredibly low and the fact that the things they know those who like cosmetics will want are always put into rng boxes.

Edited by SalemK
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Someone posted this in the other topic already.

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/7d6jqn/some_math_behind_plentiful_harves_crate/

He opened 1339 chests and calculated.

 


My 10 Boxes (traded ~550 gold for coins)

 

3x Costume Tempting Fate, 2 transmuted to 4 fabric, each 7-8g = 30
2x Maple Leaf, trade to 5 gem pouches, each 30 = 150
3x Sealed Raven Kings Soul, each 8-9g = 25
1x Sealed Void Fragment = 7
1x Evolved Stones = 9
1x Sealed Blackstone = 45
1x Empyrean Spirit Stone = 115
5x Elysian Orb, each 10g = 50
10x Moonstone, each 5g = 50

 

2x Legendary Jewel (not tradable, but saved 40g)

 

Got ~480g back (+ 40g saved) = 1 costume for 70/30 gold


Of course, no Wings or second Carnation Costume.
You can say, 2 Leafs out of 10 Boxes. Sometimes only 1.

 

I guess, this was my luck for this year, to get so much gold back.
Wanted get 10 leafs for the item to switch my Weapon to Raven 6. But i stopped trying it, after only 2 leafs from 10 Boxes. It's cheaper to spend gold in BT for it.

 

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7 hours ago, Riss77 said:

United States should seriously consider a law like the Chinese one to always display the item droprates of RNG box. And the worst is that even so, we're not protected from RNG bugs, like you know the trove with the 0% gem droprate from previous trove that has to be instantly fixed ?

I agreed with you on this, let people know the chances for them to win the items they want. But what I am afraid of is marketing scheme that could be exploited from this rule. You put 30% drop rate but then the actual drop rate will later be altered to whatever percentage they want. So it is double scam in your face.

Edited by Na Ahri
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It's kind of murphy's law, i don't much like the wings because they sit too far out from the back but out of the 150 boxes i bought i got 3 pairs.

 

Wish they were tradeable so that i could sell them and make the people who didn't get them happy.

Edited by Trix
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Before any1 accuses me coming off as rude please think before doing so and carefully read what i have to say about this matter. Im not sure whats with all these self entitled anger towards lootboxes within bns. Yeah the percentage of winning anything good is slim to non-existent. So what? Thats how gambling is designed and how it should function to begin with. 

 

Here is a simple scenario. Not sure if its lotto6 or lotto5 you play but imagine getting angry over lottery tickets you have purchased in the past for the number one prize based on the rationale that you purchased multiples therefore you ought to win the grand prize, only to find that none of your tickets won at all. Then because of that visit the lottery stall where you bought those tickets from, raging and complaining to the seller, demanding a recompensation for your losses. Don't you think that is beyond irrational? What makes you eligible to receive what you desire from a multitude of rng boxes? Or in the context of lottery tickets, what makes you eligible to win the grand prize? If you can give reasons other than risking more money to increase your chances by buying large stacks of lotters tickets/bns loot boxes then i'm all ears.

 

It is agreed by many that if one partakes in gambling, whether digital ingame, off-line horseplay and the likes, just because one put in more money, doesn't mean he/she would win. It's all rng, whether one likes it or not. 

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3 hours ago, fruiteaterz said:

Before any1 accuses me coming off as rude please think before doing so and carefully read what i have to say about this matter. Im not sure whats with all these self entitled anger towards lootboxes within bns. Yeah the percentage of winning anything good is slim to non-existent. So what? Thats how gambling is designed and how it should function to begin with. 

 

Here is a simple scenario. Not sure if its lotto6 or lotto5 you play but imagine getting angry over lottery tickets you have purchased in the past for the number one prize based on the rationale that you purchased multiples therefore you ought to win the grand prize, only to find that none of your tickets won at all. Then because of that visit the lottery stall where you bought those tickets from, raging and complaining to the seller, demanding a recompensation for your losses. Don't you think that is beyond irrational? What makes you eligible to receive what you desire from a multitude of rng boxes? Or in the context of lottery tickets, what makes you eligible to win the grand prize? If you can give reasons other than risking more money to increase your chances by buying large stacks of lotters tickets/bns loot boxes then i'm all ears.

 

It is agreed by many that if one partakes in gambling, whether digital ingame, off-line horseplay and the likes, just because one put in more money, doesn't mean he/she would win. It's all rng, whether one likes it or not. 

Why mess you the lotto here? In lotto you exactly know your chances for winning

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