RainbowDashie

some math behind Icy Treat Chest

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Ive calculated the % of the single items you can get from this chest based on 1490 chest opened by the community and posted with pic or vid.

so here is the direct math

Item amount %
overall 1490  
Lunar Twilight Plant 1490 100
Fortune Potion 1490 100
10k- EP Charm 431 28,9261745
Galaxy Fragment 257 17,24832215
Radiant Energy 238 15,97315436
Naryu Tablet 230 15,43624161
Mysterious Crystal 286 19,19463087
Evolved Stone 166 11,1409396
100k-EP Charm 210 14,09395973
Silferfrost Trans Stone 164 11,00671141
Honorary Ornament 163 10,93959732
Lunar Twilight Flower 109 7,315436242
10x Moonstone 134 8,993288591
Demon Spirit Stone 172 11,54362416
Legendary Gem Hammer 74 4,966442953
100x Soulstone 124 8,322147651
Sacred Oil 72 4,832214765
Naryu Coin 63 4,228187919
Taikhan Skin 20 1,342281879
100x Stinger 19 1,275167785
Costume 22 1,476510067
Amethyst 9 0,6040268456
Premium Silverfrost Trans Stone 7 0,4697986577

 

Sourceshttps://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbttmlf/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=gf0WTP7X0YI

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbu60px/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbu6410/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbtlq94/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbtiedl/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbthmre/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbtb96l/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbt90ik/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbt3qu9/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbt17ji/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbsz1su/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbsyt8q/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbsydlg/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbsyb34/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4zrt/rng_box_pulls_thread/dbsy113/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4u3g/happy_new_year_ncsoft_style/dbt9v0b/

https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/5l4u3g/happy_new_year_ncsoft_style/dbt1ajh/

Edited by RainbowDashie

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Interesting, also not at all surprising. Seems about right.

 

Of course the only math I need to know is :

 

1 greedy NCSoft + 0 of my cash foolishly given to them = 1 happy player...

 

Me.

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4 minutes ago, sakuraya said:

bullshit!! getting that costume is impossible without opening 100 chests omg

can you provide me any detailed information where my analyse is wrong? 
1490 boxes were opened. in there were 22 costumes, that means around 1.5% drop chance.

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Xiaoyen   
39 minutes ago, sakuraya said:

bullshit!! getting that costume is impossible without opening 100 chests omg

I got two from 50 boxes... but I didn't want the damn outfit. I wanted sacred oils and I got NONE. NONE!!!!!! $70 wasted! I am FURIOUS.

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29 minutes ago, Xiaoyen said:

I got two from 50 boxes... but I didn't want the damn outfit. I wanted sacred oils and I got NONE. NONE!!!!!! $70 wasted! I am FURIOUS.

Then next time, just say NO.

 

Theres at least 20 different things I rather do with $70 then simply hand it to NC for what amounts to lottery tickets.

 

For example...like buying a new game. One that doesnt rely so heavily on massive RNG or "luck".

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Xiaoyen   

I was suckered in by a friend who was telling me he was getting 2-3 per 50 boxes. The funny thing is, he's a HM 10 BM and now he is stronger than me, a HM 12 summoner playing since closed beta, by virtue of this event and by virtue of his broken OP class.

 

I want my $70 back... I feel like a pickpocket victim. 

 

NCSOFT, if someone buys the 50 boxes and they are rank 10 VIP, you should give them at least one damn sacred oil guaranteed!

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Azaazel   

Thanks OP for sharing the results of the gathered data.

 

It looks like the boxes are worth it if no real money is invested, since "on average" you get items more valueable than the gold you put in for the HM coins. However, one must remember this is RNG (and like a lottery)...you can get super unlucky and never get what you want even after over 100 boxes or 1000 ...

 

 

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Half   

And my twink got 1 legendary neckless by 3 runs tombs and 2 legendary rings by 10 runs cita. Does it means the drop chance is very high? ^^ Not really and that's the same point with these boxes. Nearly no chance to get some great stuff cheap, but some people have this luck. For the rest it's like tomb and cita 100 runs and only 1 accessoire dropped.

 

Btw thanks for the stats and your calc.

Edited by Half

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Strider   

It's all luck boys and girls. Pray to RNGEsus, cross your fingers, and hope for the best.

 

...

...

...

...

 

By the way, I got 3 costumes, 1 gem, and 10+ oils in 60 boxes.

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Draelth   
8 hours ago, ValennyaDarkmoon said:

Hmmm i opened 20 boxes, got 2 costumes, 1 oil and 1 Amethist .Hubby openned 30 and got 3 oils. Its pure RNG 

For real... of course is RNG! But with enough samples you can do math and show % for every item inside those packs.

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I don't mind the RNG, or the price of it, what really pissed me off was my alt needed the xp charm and my main needed the oils. I didn't know the oils, and hammer, would be NO TRADE, so my alt end up with enough oils to go from HM energy level 1 straight to 7. I ended up doing the whole thing over again with my main. Pretty shitty of them considering both items are trade-able.

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5 hours ago, KlausFlouride said:

I don't mind the RNG, or the price of it, what really pissed me off was my alt needed the xp charm and my main needed the oils. I didn't know the oils, and hammer, would be NO TRADE, so my alt end up with enough oils to go from HM energy level 1 straight to 7. I ended up doing the whole thing over again with my main. Pretty shitty of them considering both items are trade-able.

Why do kindnesses like making it where it can be traded when the whales line up to be harpooned no matter how poor the odds, the rewards, or the system for distribution?

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11 hours ago, Prototypemind said:

Why do kindnesses like making it where it can be traded when the whales line up to be harpooned no matter how poor the odds, the rewards, or the system for distribution?

No 'whales' = no game. That is the long and short of it. They have stated their profit margin, on this IP, is tiny. Maybe if they were the actual dev, and distributor(like Blizzard), they could afford to have some games be entirely free, but that isn't the case here. Cry all you want but ask yourself: how do these people really  effect me as a player? Who do you think carry's some you in-game? 6v6? Who cares?

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Mischkaa   
On 1.1.2017 at 1:54 AM, Azaazel said:

Thanks OP for sharing the results of the gathered data.

 

It looks like the boxes are worth it if no real money is invested, since "on average" you get items more valueable than the gold you put in for the HM coins. However, one must remember this is RNG (and like a lottery)...you can get super unlucky and never get what you want even after over 100 boxes or 1000 ...

 

 

like he said:
it is a lottery... sigh and i want to share my luck with you.

300 boxes:
20 radiant ring, 9 sacred oils, 0 PSTS, 2 outfits, 1 gem, 40 mysterious crystals, 5 taikhan skins, 18 evolved stones, 30 honorary ornaments, 20 fragments, 2600 soulstones, 90 moonstones AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST 20 untradeable legendary gem hammers! YEAH! i got 6 slots in my baleful + galaxy already! and they are not even account bound so yeah, instant discard BNSTears.
(Other things like exp charmes are not listed, but i also got a bunch of casual thingys aswell)
Make your calculations, i lost A LOT.

Better luck next time sigh..

RNG be with me someday BNSPlease

Edited by Mischkaa

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Katu Kat   
On 1/1/2017 at 8:47 PM, Mortal Kombat said:

Then next time, just say NO.

 

Theres at least 20 different things I rather do with $70 then simply hand it to NC for what amounts to lottery tickets.

 

For example...like buying a new game. One that doesnt rely so heavily on massive RNG or "luck".

People need to read and understand this comment, have it ingrained in the back of their minds. 

If you gamble and loss you shouldn't be complaining. Know that you got what you paid for....which is basically just a chance to win and not actually a win.

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babeln   
On 1. 1. 2017 at 1:21 AM, Xiaoyen said:

I got two from 50 boxes... but I didn't want the damn outfit. I wanted sacred oils and I got NONE. NONE!!!!!! $70 wasted! I am FURIOUS.

why you didnt sell those ncoins in ctrl+c, and craft your own oils

or - like many WTS icy chests in faction chat... lol

then make your oils = profit

 

unless you want outfit with jacket hovering above shoulders and plastic stockings, or 4 ap from hepta amethyst

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Kawane   

Same as Xiaoyen, bought 50 boxes and got 2 outfits. I'm happy though, I'm a outfit collector.

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Xiaoyen   
On 1/4/2017 at 8:29 PM, Kawane said:

Same as Xiaoyen, bought 50 boxes and got 2 outfits. I'm happy though, I'm a outfit collector.

But... I wanted the sacred oil... wahhhhhhhh /wrist

 

And yes babeln, I've started making my own oils. Those rng boxes gave me cancer.

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