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NCSoft did you reduce the success chance of upgrading Oceanic Weapon?


ketiax

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I don't know the real chances of success or failure. I did some wild estimations and then a little of math (very little in fact, because it is not that hard). If we assume a 50% chance of success for every stage which, I know, might be a little high, but lets just be generous here, then the result is as follows:

 

Stage 2: 50 %
Stage 3: 25 %
Stage 4: 12,5 %
Stage 5: 6,25 %
Stage 6: 3,13 %
Stage 7: 1,56 %
Stage 8: 0,78 %

 

This means that if want to get stage 7, for example, you have a 1,56 % to get it on every oceanic weapon you buy. Another way of looking at it is that you would need about 64 oceanic weapons on average to get one reaching stage 7. That is 19.2 gold only for buying the weapons. But we have to add the evolution costs:

 

- 32 would succeed from stage 1 to stage 2 and 32 would fail. 64 weapons x 0.05 gold = 3.2 gold.
- Of those 32, 16 would succeed from stage 2 to stage 3. 3.2g + 32 x 0.15g = 8 gold
- Of those 16, 8 would succeed from stage 3 to stage 4.8g + 16 x 0.3g = 12.8 gold
- Of those 8, 4 would succeed from stage 4 to stage 5. 12.8g + 8 x 0.8g = 19.2 gold
- Of those 4, 2 would succeed from stage 5 to stage 6. 19.2g + 4 x 5g = 39.2 gold
- Of those 2, 1 would succeed from stage 6 to stage 7. 39.2 + 2 x 10g = 59.2 gold.

 

So you spend a total of 78,4 gold and 126 corallites on average to get one stage 7 weapon and 120 fragments. Bear in mind, however, that if the chances of success are lower in any of the stages then you would need more than 64 weapons on average, and If these chances are lower in many of the stages then you would need many more than 64 weapons on average.

 

So after doing the math and considering that my estimation on the success chances was probably very high, my conclusion was this: I prefer to sell the corallites that can be sold in the marketplace and sell the other ones in the dragon express for 1 copper each. I would say that there is no reason to complain for the event though: if you like to gamble and you have the resources to do it then gamble; if you don't like to gamble then just don't gamble. There is no obligation here.

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200 + coralites later never got past stage 6. But i lost so many gold trying to upgrade because these shit gets expensive after a while.

coralite has higher benefit value if you sell it to merchant for 1pc a piece... XD this is too much like having to win the lottery 7 times in a row to get something it's utter bullshit

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forgot to update: yesterda on my wat to 150+ fragments, i got a stage7. i actually have an alt SF. i was wondering if gem was better than ember..but actually..crafting weapon on my main and having just sapphire(?) account bound..i prefered to risk with stage 8. OFC i failed. 

 

so a stage 6 and a stage7 on my record in my 150+ fragments. 

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So far the event has provided me with 3 discount accessory upgrades, which a bit more than make up for the gold sunk into it. Also some extra tradeable corralites each day which should have earned me about 100+ gold, so that's fine as well. I really think the event is not too bad as long as you do not care about the upgrades working or not working. Which is almost impossible psychologically I admit. XD

 

Anyway newest numbers:

 

n = 140 corralites, average success rate still 54%, _but_ unequal distribution over the different stages:

fails at stage 1: 23
fails at stage 2: 11
fails at stage 3: 20
fails at stage 4: 6
fails at stage 5: 1
fails at stage 6: 1

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