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NCSoft did you reduce the success chance of upgrading Oceanic Weapon?

ketiax

By ketiax
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Shuchin

Shuchin

Posted
Posted

I am keeping an excel sheet of my successes and failures and current working hypothesis is a 33% success rate on any evolution.

 

If that's true, stage 6 or 7 are very rare outcomes, and if they happen once or twice, you cannot infer anything about a change in probabilities depending on when they occured.

 

If two players reach three 6,7 or 8s during the entire event, but one players gets then near the start and the other near the end of the eventm both might claim the chances had gone down or up. But both would be wrong, it's just RNG. ^_^

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Grimstar

Grimstar

Posted
Posted

We already have enough RNG in the normal game,like making premium silverfrost stones for legendary (which i failed 8, of the 8 tries), or ssp (moonstones/keys). And then we get another RNG event, since the launch of event, i havent gotten above stage 4 oceanic. So the people who already gotten a stage 6/7 really shouldnt complain...

 

I miss events, that awarded u the more u played, with a 100% chance to get something good. Not this rng-fest where even someone who plays 1h each day can get an ember/ap gem..

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Jackiesaysya

Jackiesaysya

Posted
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Shuchin is correct. Rng is rng. doesn't feel nerfed.

 

Happy thread starter had amazing rng at the beginning of the event...many did not share this good luck. As soon as i first read about event I knew I would, again, have zero chance for an ap gem. Then I was surprised by the feature that lets you turn in 500 pieces for gem. Entirely worth it. Will be my first and probably only ap gem, outside of the free daily peridot. Already over 120 pieces along with little less then a month to go. very doable as f2p.

 

29 minutes ago, Shuchin said:

I am keeping an excel sheet of my successes and failures and current working hypothesis is a 33% success rate on any evolution.

 

If that's true, stage 6 or 7 are very rare outcomes, and if they happen once or twice, you cannot infer anything about a change in probabilities depending on when they occured.

 

If two players reach three 6,7 or 8s during the entire event, but one players gets then near the start and the other near the end of the eventm both might claim the chances had gone down or up. But both would be wrong, it's just RNG. ^_^

 

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GodofWrath

GodofWrath

Posted
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What i don't understand is why do we get 1 fragment for each stage. That's completely retarded considering upgrade rates. The lower the rate the higher the number of fragments should be but it's GreedSoft so i don't really expect them to make something reasonable. Also i want to say this too. As usual they announced the extension on twitter before they do it here. For *cricket*s sake this is your game's official forum. What kind of team do they have?

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YamiKokennin

YamiKokennin

Posted
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25 minutes ago, GodofWrath said:

What i don't understand is why do we get 1 fragment for each stage. That's completely retarded considering upgrade rates. The lower the rate the higher the number of fragments should be but it's GreedSoft so i don't really expect them to make something reasonable. Also i want to say this too. As usual they announced the extension on twitter before they do it here. For *cricket*s sake this is your game's official forum. What kind of team do they have?

No. You may need to pay more attention to the message then. If you fail going from stage 4 to stage 5, you get 4 coral fragments back. How do I know this? I failed so many times at stage 5 to stage 6. Always get 5 coral fragments back so after 11 stage 5 to 6 failure, I had enough to buy the glasses with the fragments.

 

So far, I had a lot of failure from 5 to 6. Only 1 made it to 6 which I used to get the swimsuit. None has passed stage 6 + a numbing amount of failure going from Stage 1 to stage 2 right from the first day of the event. So I disagree with OP about NC changes the successful chance. It's "chance" for a reason.

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GodofWrath

GodofWrath

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4 minutes ago, YamiKokennin said:

No. You may need to pay more attention to the message then. If you fail going from stage 4 to stage 5, you get 4 coral fragments back. How do I know this? I failed so many times at stage 5 to stage 6. Always get 5 coral fragments back so after 11 stage 5 to 6 failure, I had enough to buy the glasses with the fragments.

 

So far, I had a lot of failure from 5 to 6. Only 1 made it to 6 which I used to get the swimsuit. None has passed stage 6 + a numbing amount of failure going from Stage 1 to stage 2 right from the first day of the event. So I disagree with OP about NC changes the successful chance. It's "chance" for a reason.

That's what i said 1 fragment for each stage so if you reach stage 3 and fail you get 3 fragments and if you reach stage 6 and fail you get 6 fragments. This is stupid considering upgrade rates.

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Tania

Tania

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Posted

in the 1st day of the event i got lucky and managed to +7 only with 50 coralites,yesterday i gave it another shot and bought over 200 coralites,guess what...it didn't go higher then +6,mostly fail at +4 or +5

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ChuckN

ChuckN

Posted
Posted

Well i am very happy with this event!

Yesterday i went from 1 to 6 with no fail and got the summer outfit.

Then, i tryed to get the summer glasses because of the outfit...

and guess...

from 1 to 5 no fail  lol

thanx nc :)

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Arkragon

Arkragon

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I don't think they changed the rate. In the first day I used like 80+ corallite and got to a max of stage 5. Just yesterday I was able to get to stage 6 twice, and today I got to stage 7, and that's with around 20 corallite. If anything, it seems like my luck is increasing rather than decreasing.

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MojoMaster

MojoMaster

Posted
Posted

Just wish that they would announce some kind of Luck/ Unlucky factor for characters.

Would be fun to know what, if anything, increases or decreases chances on a toon

 

Also a points system based on Luck / Unlucky might be an amusing addition

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Shuchin

Shuchin

Posted
Posted
On 27 July 2016 at 3:27 PM, Shuchin said:

I am keeping an excel sheet of my successes and failures and current working hypothesis is a 33% success rate on any evolution.

 

Seems I was pretty unlucky in the beginning. Fail rate has now adjusted to only 49%, at n = 30.

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Sinnaru

Sinnaru

Posted
Posted
On 7/26/2016 at 8:51 AM, MasterBlaster said:

Nobody's luck is as bad as mine, 69 fragments now and still can't get to stage 6. I got up to stage 5 like 5 or 6 times. Thats even worst since thats like 5g wasted each time. At this point i don't even want the swimsuit anymore when i *do finally* get to stage 6. Probably just gonna get the naryu tablet and sell it for my money back lmaoo.

250 corallites I bought yesterday and didnt get past stage 6. Beat that..

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Shuchin

Shuchin

Posted
Posted

The law of large numbers theorem is keeping it exciting for me with the Oceanics:

 

Now after n = 105 corralites, the average success rate is 54%, _but_ I observe unequal distribution over the different stages:

 

fails at stage 1: 20
fails at stage 2: 7
fails at stage 3: 15
fails at stage 4: 5
fails at stage 5: 0
fails at stage 6: 1

 

As if it was more likely to fail at stage 1 and 3 for some reason.

 

My CHI square says the probability for such a distribution by chance, if the fail rate was 50% thorough, is smaller than 0.1%. O.O'

 

So my question: Has anyone else noticed more fails at stage 3 than at stage 2?

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