Does anyone actually know how the RNG really works?

[zapzap77]

A lot of people have been reporting it to be evil, and while it could just be bad luck, it seems to be enough of a pattern.

 

Some theories.

 

1) spending cash on the game affects the RNG.   The game coudl be saying "screw you, you haven't spend enough money!"

2) the game prioritizes classes not present at weapon drop rolls from dungoens. this definitely seems ot be the case. you can have 6 out of 8 classes and it's ot that uncommon for one of the two not present to drop. In fact seems that before warlock was released it was the most common weapon.

3) For anything needed to progress from a weapon chest, or wheel of fate RNG, the game keeps track of whether you got it already, and if you haven't, intentionally blocks you for a randomly rolled number of spins.  This can be anywhere from 0 to over 100, it seems.  Once you DO get that first one and use it, it seems to start being fair.  I couldn't get the item for the windwalker dive skill quest until i bought one from the marketplace. then all of a sudden three more dropped off the wheel of fate.

 

I know this sounds all conspiracy theory, but games really have done evil stuff intentionally with their RNG.  And most people agree the RNG is evil in this game.

 

Some verified examples.

1) Kingdom of Loathing.  At one tiime there was a mechanic called "delay".  Tihs mechanic was placed in to make sure people didn't get too lucky on rare drops.  The game would set an amount of time when you took the quest (without telling you what it is, and it was randomized) where the quest drop was blocked.  It was finally removed after it angered too many players trying to speedrun through it.

2) Cabal Online (a korean game, though by a different company).  This ha a system where random rare drops were tied to your level. If you outlevelled the drop, it would then completely dry up and your odds of getting it would be worse then willing the lottery.  Note that you could outlevel a drop without getting it doing nothing but trying to farm for it.  This is proven with leaked server files.   The simplest proof of this was b1 frozen dungeon entry item, that wold drop plenty within it's level range, but as soon as you reached a certain level you would never see another one drop.  They would do the same thing with much rare drops. if you failed the RNG enough times there was no choice but to cash shop the item, as there was no way to turn off exp.  And this happened multiple times during progression after a certain point.

 

So can anyone really answer this?

 

Is the RNG rigged, and if so, how? I'm guessing it's number 3 above, having random screw the player factors that are undone when enough attempts have happened, or the item is otherwise gotten.

 

Odds of the weapon you need from a chest is 12.5 percent assuming 8 weapons.  that's 87.5% not getting it.  So to gets the odds of not getting it after x chests, raise the number to the x power. your odds are about 28% or so of not having it after 10.  odds of not having it after 30 is under 2%.  We can't even analyze the wheel of fate, because there is no presumption of equality.  In fact, with the different sized sections, we can assume the odds are NOT equal.

 

Many game actulally do the opposite, and ctually make the quest drop more likely with each time you fail to get it.  this makes the game seem fair, when actually it's helping the player out.

[ThePrelate]

While the drop rate of an item can indeed be influenced in code, it's impossible to say anything about the RNG without tampering with game files and I think a lot of people would rather stay out of that. So we can only have theories. But yeah, this is entirely possible, doing a few simple lines in the code could determine the drop (as it does, for instance, with quests in many games).

[zapzap77]

Of course we can't get access to the games server files. I wasn't suggesting anyone should.  But if the RNG is truly fair, then an employee should be able to come out and say so. :)

 

It's a given that the wheels of fate are at best case working like a slot machine with weighted probabilities.   They used unequal sections on it to show it.   But is their extra cheating going on?

 

 

[DyvorKurozu]

To be honest I can understand why they would 'rig' some chances for people to get something specific out of wheels and chests etc. since it's to make that people will do some things more than 1-3 times, however there's always the risk the balance goes out too far and people have to spend like 15+ times running a dungeon to get their specific weapon from the chest, like my friend had happening two times a row both in Narrows and in Darkglimpse. So until we'd get some solid proof, I can't say either way to how the RNG works and that some people just get lucky and some don't.

[Erza Scarlet]

I wonder if the RNG boxes are in fact "rigged" meaning you only get "good" loot after trying to open a stack of 20 instead of 1 per time?

[TheQuibbler]

I doubt it..

 

RNG is random.. with you being unlucky, you can be sure someone has seen whatever you wanted on their first try.

 

1) I got the purple gem from last RNG box, on my very first one, from HMcoins (EDIT: I have spendt money, I bought Premium)

2) Lightning Draw dropped for my group, on my very first run in BSH, with 2 BM's.

3) I got Deva's outfit and other items, in less than 10 wheel spins.

 

Then however, it took 65 runs of BSH to get the blindfold.

And over 50 wheel spins to get profane weapon for evolution.

[Dotimus]

5 hours ago, zapzap77 said:

A lot of people have been reporting it to be evil, and while it could just be bad luck, it seems to be enough of a pattern.

.

I know this sounds all conspiracy theory, but games really have done evil stuff intentionally with their RNG.  And most people agree the RNG is evil in this game.

 

So can anyone really answer this?

 

 

3 hours ago, TheQuibbler said:

I doubt it..

 

RNG is random.. with you being unlucky, you can be sure someone has seen whatever you wanted on their first try.

 

1) I got the purple gem from last RNG box, on my very first one, from HMcoins (EDIT: I have spendt money, I bought Premium)

2) Lightning Draw dropped for my group, on my very first run in BSH, with 2 BM's.

3) I got Deva's outfit and other items, in less than 10 wheel spins.

 

Then however, it took 65 runs of BSH to get the blindfold.

And over 50 wheel spins to get profane weapon for evolution.

 

it not that simple to talk about rng, really...

there is plenty of random number implementations:

1 - some that try to give a statistical distribution of the random numbers, some that do not

2 -  some give random number per account ( each account has a seed), some do not and just draw from a global pool

 

with all of that in mind, for us the players there can be a lot of differences in our perception of "randomness"

 

i've already had the case in which i had to do 20 or more runs for a weapon and already had weapons drop on my second or third attempt ( even had my weapon drop on hujikar first try )

 

[KzE]

11 hours ago, zapzap77 said:

Is the RNG rigged, and if so, how?

It is not rigged, just this is not RNG. It is PRNG. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator

[Tandleheart]

37 minutes ago, KzE said:

It is not rigged, just this is not RNG. It is PRNG. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator

Yeah, but I don't think the OP is asking about the quality of the actual random number generator... the question seems to be more asking about whether or not the loot tables are time-varying or not.  Like, even if we assume that the "dice" or (pseudo-)random number generator is fair, are there any other hidden games being played by the server so that what appears to be a straightforward dice roll on the surface is not really so clean inside.  Or in other words, even before we get do the dice, is the server taking into consideration ancillary factors such as (1) how much you've spent in the cash shop recently, (2) how recently did you obtain the quest, (3) perhaps the outcomes of other groups who recently did the instance (example: the super rare drop appeared for your previous group, so the game artificially makes it impossible for that drop to happen again until a certain amount of time has passed), (4) etc.

[zapzap77]

Well if an NCSOFT employee says so I will believe it. :)

 

The fact that no one has been able to actually work out the drops rates is telling.

[KzE]

23 minutes ago, Tandleheart said:

Yeah, but I don't think the OP is asking about the quality of the actual random number generator... the question seems to be more asking about whether or not the loot tables are time-varying or not.  Like, even if we assume that the "dice" or (pseudo-)random number generator is fair, are there any other hidden games being played by the server so that what appears to be a straightforward dice roll on the surface is not really so clean inside.  Or in other words, even before we get do the dice, is the server taking into consideration ancillary factors such as (1) how much you've spent in the cash shop recently, (2) how recently did you obtain the quest, (3) perhaps the outcomes of other groups who recently did the instance (example: the super rare drop appeared for your previous group, so the game artificially makes it impossible for that drop to happen again until a certain amount of time has passed), (4) etc.

Just read the link.

 

" The PRNG-generated sequence is not truly random, because it is completely determined by a relatively small set of initial values, called the PRNG's seed (which may include truly random values). "

 

The initial values are like : if you FM, bangle drop rate -50%, etc...

 

[zapzap77]

That's not how  seed works.

 

A seed is a starting point to the sequence.   Given the same starting seed, the same sequence will repeat.  It matters with RNGs that don't gather their own entropy.  this does not affect things being "rigged"  if the RNG quality were an issue we would see class biases that could go in your favor depending on class for weapon chest.

[AriaEnia]

The RNG in this game is rigged all right. 102 keys and not even one forgotten brightstone bangle for my awakened profane breakthrough. Got 9 axes, 5 razors, 7 daggers, 4 gauntlets, 3 staffs, 3 swords and 3 lynblades. I refuse to pay 55 gold just for buying a moonwater key from the marketplace just to breakthrough my awakened profane weapon. I really regretted using my hongmoon moonwater key for hujikar chest. A fatal mistake for a newbie like me. For other newbies, DO NOT USE your hongmoon moonwater key from survey for hujikar chest. I'm not worry anymore though, I already quit this game. This game is not newbie friendly, especially the free player one. Oh, also that profile picture problems also one of the factors why I quit this game, this game has too many horny people.

[Negaimu]

Im sure its fixed in some way. however i know people who have spent 1000s of dollars and still have trash rng. i think its a flat rate scumbag rng system no matter how much money you dump into bns.

[KzE]

1 hour ago, zapzap77 said:

That's not how  seed works.

 

A seed is a starting point to the sequence.   Given the same starting seed, the same sequence will repeat.  It matters with RNGs that don't gather their own entropy.  this does not affect things being "rigged"  if the RNG quality were an issue we would see class biases that could go in your favor depending on class for weapon chest.

And the sequence is : your own weapon drop rate is lower, than others.

[Shukran]

i farmed infinte challenge outfit for 5 days and 2800tickets. not dropeed.

someone got at first try .

 

someone get his weapon at first try

someone at 10th.

someone at 200th.

 

stop thinking you are special and deserve more than others. 

[Nattia]

it's really random.

[Arohk]

i think you see patterns where there are none.

 

RANDOM just means random, you can be lucky or unlucky.

 

here is a little example i recently experienced with the summer i just level:

 

Blight weapon> 12 runs in blackram. (=12 drops+ 12 boxes) , got it in the 12th box.

Infernal weapon > dropped in the first weapon box +  Necklance i missed. (i got ring and earing from the first two bosses) so i got all 4 items in the same run.

Wheel of fate Jiangshi (moonwater) > got the staff out of the third weapon box (all with the 5 essences from the story quest, didn't kill the boss once)

Lost Brightstone Staff > took me 20 weapon boxes to get it, i tell you that was hell'a annoying.

 

and unless we get official information about droprates, it is all rumors.

 

a little example for this:

It is official that you get a Legendary Card 100% in a Hearthstone Pack in each 40th card pack, while the chance is inceasing slightly by each pack until you get a legendary card, then it resets to the base loot chance ~2%.

[GreenDestiny]

RNG is RNG. Do you realize how much work it would take to code what you are wondering? If the developers had that much time there this game would be a lot better than it is.

[Iaosise]

I'm fairly certain it is not rigged. Have gotten things first go, others have taken longer. What we have to remember is each time is probably the same random value so that how often we run something each time is like the first. Can be annoying and painful sometimes, but that is just how it goes. Sometimes things like damage, speed, level of the party ... seem to change what is likely to drop, but that may just be an incorrect perception on my part. 

 

Would be nice if they had it set where you got more likely to get an item the more times you did something. Specially if it is something you need for evolving equipment, just to help keep frustration levels a little lower. One of my characters had to run Narrows so many times to get her weapon, I actually had to take a break from running it and come back at a higher level to get it. My other character got it her first run as a drop ... didn't even have to open a chest.

[zapzap77]

I'm well aware that any drop rate below a certain point is annoying even with a fair RNG.  I've dealt with this in many single player games.

 

I just want confirmation from NCSOFT that the RNG doesn't cheat, and think it's worth asking because i know for a fact that some MMOs, mostly ones that have cash shops, DO have cheating RNGs, and it's been proven from the private server files that were leaked from official server files.

 

Would be nice if there was some actual stat tracking on those weapon chests. that tracked how many of each weapon chest was opened by each class with normal keys, and how often each class weapon was dropped.  With that data it wold be easy enough to go "see, the RNG is fair, stop complaining".

[Melodia]

21 hours ago, zapzap77 said:

But if the RNG is truly fair, then an employee should be able to come out and say so. :

RNG. Fair. NCS. Korean P2W MMO. LMAO didn't know those words can exist in the same context.

You are one funny guy.

Made my day.

[Shukran]

why should they come here to confirm something if there is no need to do it since the system is "good"?

[Piper]

9 hours ago, Shukran said:

stop thinking you are special and deserve more than others. 

Better to stop excusing RNG griefing as a good game design.

[Youmukon]

Long story short, no it's not rigged. The way loots are generated is completely detached from things such as the class you are playing or the money you have invested to the game. Some RNG aspects aren't equiprobable however (i.e. the Daily Dash wheel behavior isn't the one of a standard dice, you have less chance to get a 6 than a 2 or 3, the game shows you that, since the wheel isn't split in 6 equal parts).

 

The huge problem with RNG is that lucky players will almost never take their time to talk about how lucky they are (i.e. they won't create a forum thread just to say "I got something on 1st try, I'm so lucky!"), whereas unlucky players are more likely to be frustrated and more likely to complain. That gives an over inflated amount of negative opinions vs positive ones.

 

In theory, roughly 1% of players will need 34~35 tries to get their class weapon out of a chest. Sure being part of that 1% unluckiest players is annoying, but it can happen. When you take in consideration a very large sample of players (the whole Blade & Soul population), then you multiply it by the amount of times that sample will try to acquire a specific class weapon from a chest, you get a -huge- number. 1% of that number will still be a LOT and that's how many players can rightfully say "I've tried 34 times and didn't obtain my class weapon yet".

 

There are more than one place in Blade & Soul where RNG plays a role so you are bound to be "that unlucky player" once in a while, likewise you will also end up being the lucky one from time to time. The above is valid for a typical weapon chest with 1 chance of out 8 to get the weapon from your class. Now for things where drop rate is way lower (I can't give exact numbers, but even if we assume p=0.05), being in the 1% unluckiest player bracket would mean trying 90+ times before obtaining the wanted item.