The future of the economy might be in trouble

[Lordzero2]

this might be a somewhat long post.

 

So I am sure most people have seen how the price of moonwater pickaxes have been slowly increasing.

 

The main issue is the supply is diminishing and the demand isnt since obviously we need moonwater quartz.

 

Most people might not know this but to craft one moonwater pick you need 3 soulstones and 12 hours.

 

Clearly as the price of soulstones are 22 silver each atm the moonwater pickaxes on the market are not being crafted, instead they are ones found in boxes and from the people leveling and getting the free ones.

 

So what happens when the majority of people are max level and only a handful are leveling new alts?

The supply will drop even further and still no one will be crafting these picks until the price reaches a point that 12 hours gives a decent profit.

 

Lets say that soulstones drop to 15 silver each, taking into account AH cut for selling 1 pick axe and the fees to have it made plus the misc resources the picks would need to sell for atleast 50-55 silver to even begin to think about making them.

 

Some people might ask "what does this have to do with the market and how does it effect me?"

 

What this means to you is this.  Right now the moonwater quartz is 8s(ish) and picks are 12s(ish) meaning quartz sells for 66% of the price of a pick.  Clearly if you cant make profit off using the pick why buy it right?   So what happens if a pick costs 55 silver? the price of quartz must rise to match of course.  Thus the price of everything crafted using quartz will rise as well.

 

Please correct me if I am wrong but this seems like a glaring issue, I feel that the devs need to change the crafting requirements for moonwater picks OR increase how many are made for the price paid in.

 

Thoughts?

[Fwuffeg]

Just remember this is only lv 45, we still have yet to recieve lvl 50 patch, so who knows how it will end up.

[love4ndpeace]

You happen to forget that when mining quartz you can get up to 5 piece per pick depending on your luck.

[Daymon]

1 hour ago, love4ndpeace said:

You happen to forget that when mining quartz you can get up to 5 piece per pick depending on your luck.

Yeah, but the chance for that isn't really high, most of the tiime we only get about 1-2 quartz

[Azuhariet]

Pickaxes will never go that high. They are too easy to get, and nobody in their right mind would craft them in the present and near future. The auction house is linked between ALL servers, and whether you realize this or not, there will ALWAYS be new players or even old players leveling alts, bringing more pickaxes from the story quest into the market. As if THAT wasn't enough, they are a fairly common drop in the loot chests that are given for completing a daily in Moonwater Plains. I only do roughly 20 or 30 of my dailies each day on two characters and I would say I get around 2 or 3 a day from those boxes, and that's just me. Also, the consumption of quartz is limited by time. Crafting in this game takes quite a long time at the later stages where Moonwater Quartz is even used, so while someone could end up using 10 quartz a day, there will also be 10 or even more during that time those 10 are being used. 

[nothankyou]

1 hour ago, love4ndpeace said:

You happen to forget that when mining quartz you can get up to 5 piece per pick depending on your luck.

Is there any proof? I swear it's only like 1-3 or something because I've never seen more than 3.

[Bennive]

3 minutes ago, Starbo said:

Is there any proof? I swear it's only like 1-3 or something because I've never seen more than 3.

got 5 once. no proof sorry. but yeah, genereally you only get one. or two.

[Sapfear]

U get 1-3 from usual, and up to 5 from RICH, they are rare

[Victorion]

It´s way too early for this discussion.
As for your example. The future will include new areas, new types of quarts and moonwater quarts will lose the prestige it has now.

If we were to discuss future economy - we should be speaking about how to combat the inevitable inflation that will come. A high inflation of ingame currency is hurtful to any mmo - and you can´t just intruduce gold sinks without careful consideration to the impact of the players and whether gold sellers will have an easier time or not.

[Sylvaeril]

What's really going to cause the market to crash is that people are crafting trans stones and underselling everyone else. Which is the main use for mwater quartz. and then people wont be making the stones nearly as much since they wont be making any kind of good money. So those mining the quartz will have their markets crash, along with those making/selling the picks, along with the soulstone market as well to a degree.

 

Basically because kids are too stupid to realize undercutting a needed item with a difficult obtaining process will crash the economy because they don't understand anything like profit margins.

[Victorion]

1 minute ago, Sylvaeril said:

What's really going to cause the market to crash is that people are crafting trans stones and underselling everyone else. Which is the main use for mwater quartz. and then people wont be making the stones nearly as much since they wont be making any kind of good money. So those mining the quartz will have their markets crash, along with those making/selling the picks, along with the soulstone market as well to a degree.

 

Basically because kids are too stupid to realize undercutting a needed item with a difficult obtaining process will crash the economy because they don't understand anything like profit margins.

 

While you´re right, it´s perfectly logical what´s happening to the market at the moment.

People are generally blindsided by thinking that crafting automatically leads to making money - or that it ought to.

 

Right now, players are leveling their crafting skills, and since the game is so new - there´s a ton of people who still trying to just reach level 3 in their crafting guild.

The high demand of reaching higher crafting levels, automatically leads to a higher demand for mats. Price for mats go up, the places to farm the mats are more and more exhausted.

 

Now

Another important thing to consider, is that alot of players wants to free up inventory for all the crafting mats and they need gold to buy more stuff - because they already spent a ton on crafting and upgrading weapons and accessories.

For many people, the easy solution is to sell the newly crafted items. They free up inventory space, get a little fast cash and can continue their goal without waiting. Selling at a higher price, means longer wait and risking that you never sell the item but are taxed with the fee anyway.

 

 

[Sylvaeril]

31 minutes ago, Victorion said:

 

While you´re right, it´s perfectly logical what´s happening to the market at the moment.

People are generally blindsided by thinking that crafting automatically leads to making money - or that it ought to.

 

Right now, players are leveling their crafting skills, and since the game is so new - there´s a ton of people who still trying to just reach level 3 in their crafting guild.

The high demand of reaching higher crafting levels, automatically leads to a higher demand for mats. Price for mats go up, the places to farm the mats are more and more exhausted.

 

Now

Another important thing to consider, is that alot of players wants to free up inventory for all the crafting mats and they need gold to buy more stuff - because they already spent a ton on crafting and upgrading weapons and accessories.

For many people, the easy solution is to sell the newly crafted items. They free up inventory space, get a little fast cash and can continue their goal without waiting. Selling at a higher price, means longer wait and risking that you never sell the item but are taxed with the fee anyway.

 

 

Yes, but how many of these new crafters driving down the price will continue crafting after the market's dead in the water? Because with the newer upgrades you need 10 stones at a time!

[Victorion]

5 minutes ago, Sylvaeril said:

Yes, but how many of these new crafters driving down the price will continue crafting after the market's dead in the water? Because with the newer upgrades you need 10

stones at a time!

Relax. The market prices will adjust once the game normalizes and we have a good share of old players and new players.

 

Right now at the very beginning things are going to look odd. In the first 10 days, we had huge login queues - I remember being #3551 lined up for login.
The last 4-5 days, I had no queue at all. The game will stabilize, market will too - less spontaneous maintenance etc.

[Sylvaeril]

2 hours ago, Victorion said:

Relax. The market prices will adjust once the game normalizes and we have a good share of old players and new players.

 

Right now at the very beginning things are going to look odd. In the first 10 days, we had huge login queues - I remember being #3551 lined up for login.
The last 4-5 days, I had no queue at all. The game will stabilize, market will too - less spontaneous maintenance etc.

i hope so, otherwise there wont be any stones being sold.

[Victorion]

Just now, Sylvaeril said:

i hope so, otherwise there wont be any stones being sold.

 

And excactly that scenario would increase the demand for stones and increase the market price for stones :)

[Lordzero2]

8 hours ago, Azuhariet said:

Pickaxes will never go that high. They are too easy to get, and nobody in their right mind would craft them in the present and near future. The auction house is linked between ALL servers, and whether you realize this or not, there will ALWAYS be new players or even old players leveling alts, bringing more pickaxes from the story quest into the market. As if THAT wasn't enough, they are a fairly common drop in the loot chests that are given for completing a daily in Moonwater Plains. I only do roughly 20 or 30 of my dailies each day on two characters and I would say I get around 2 or 3 a day from those boxes, and that's just me. Also, the consumption of quartz is limited by time. Crafting in this game takes quite a long time at the later stages where Moonwater Quartz is even used, so while someone could end up using 10 quartz a day, there will also be 10 or even more during that time those 10 are being used. 

There is one big problem in your assumption.  Once the majority of players hit 45 the number of people needing moonwater quartz and the number of people supplying free pickaxes will be VERY lopsided compared to now where most people are not 45 yet.  im not really sure if 1-3 pickaxes a day (keep in mind most people dont do every daily for example i only do the soulstone dailies and 24 man dailies) are enough to keep the price from going down.  Also if people need the quartz they would just use them thus they are not going up on the ah.

[Lordzero2]

7 hours ago, Victorion said:

It´s way too early for this discussion.
As for your example. The future will include new areas, new types of quarts and moonwater quarts will lose the prestige it has now.

If we were to discuss future economy - we should be speaking about how to combat the inevitable inflation that will come. A high inflation of ingame currency is hurtful to any mmo - and you can´t just intruduce gold sinks without careful consideration to the impact of the players and whether gold sellers will have an easier time or not.

What is to stop this exact same problem from occuring with the next quartz?  If the price of the pick to craft is stupidly high then my scenario still plays out the same way.

[Lordzero2]

Just going to point at the Market and say "see?"  The prices are steadily increasing now.

[Lordzero2]

Oh hey look, on NA servers picks are 28 silver each and quartz is 16 silver each.  Its almost as if my predictions were spot on.

[Lordzero2]

Just wanted to bring this thread back up so all the people who were saying I am wrong could choke on it.  Take a look at prices, btw they will continue to rise.

[Astrohawke]

3 hours ago, Lordzero2 said:

Just wanted to bring this thread back up so all the people who were saying I am wrong could choke on it.  Take a look at prices, btw they will continue to rise.

You are a prophet man. How many pickaxes did you buy when they were 12s? You must be profiting big now.

[Astrohawke]

Just now, Lordzero2 said:

sitting on 250g atm

250g worth of pickaxes or just 250g?

[Lordzero2]

52 minutes ago, Astrohawke said:

You are a prophet man. How many pickaxes did you buy when they were 12s? You must be profiting big now.

sitting on 250g atm

 

250g, im holding a different item right now since it will be skyrocketing in prices within the next week or so.