PSA: Moonwater transformation stones and merry potter secret technique not worth it anymore

[Ninfu]

15 minutes ago, Astrohawke said:

Let me try to make this very clear to you. Whether it is real life or in a video game, you make profit based on how difficult it is to make your craft. If I am just starting to learn how to paint, the rubbish painting I produce isn't going to make me any profit. It will make me a loss because no one wants to buy the painting and I spent money on paint, canvas, brush etc. But I will take those losses and continue painting until one day I become a good painter then people may want to buy my paintings. 1st I might sell some pictures for $50 or $100, then as I get even better maybe $500 or $1000 and eventually if I become a master painter, my stuff may go for tens of thousands. I make more profit as I get better at what I do.

 

It's the same in any video game. You start at level 1 crafting and the things you make are worthless. No one wants to buy your level 1 potion in WoW. But you keep making level 1 potions anyway to level up until you get to a higher level and the things you craft start to have more and more value and can start producing more profit.

 

In BnS, you're not making any profit because just like making a rubbish painting or a level 1 potion, what you're crafting is easily crafted by everyone else. You're basically drawing some stick figures on a piece of paper, then expect people to pay you for it because you think deserve to be paid for spending the time to draw those stick figures. But no one is going to pay you for drawing stick figures because if they wanted a stick figure painting, they can do it themselves. Until you start producing stuff that people don't have the skills to produce themselves, you won't make any profit.

 

Somewhat true and not. Which clearly points out that you're not thinking every angle of craftmanship and have no understanding about profits.

 

Lets take that painting stuff. Lets go with simple term art / artist but im referring now to painters with this.

YEs for majority it might go that way that first its huge struggle and every passing moment they get better so they can make more profit out of it. But with artist problem is not solely that they're not just trying to cover up living expenses when they're selling their paintings. Cost for one painting might be that 50 dollars and it might still sell for 500k dollars just because some dude decides its worth of it.

 

But now comes problem with this system. There are situations where someone who isnt master painter becomes popular artist and his/her work suddenly sells for thousands of dollars. Here is one example about it.

Few years ago child yes child fingerpainted or something. But anyway what ever childs do with paints at age of 7-10 cant remember actuall age but it was child. Oh well story continues. Her paintings started selling for thousands of dollars. Why? Just because one adult decided that they were amazing. When i saw one of her paintings my first thought was who the *cricket* would pay anything for that but obviously someone payed because her parents kept selling the stuff. You can either believ me or not or try to google australian girl who sold paintings for thousands. But its very old news and these things happen now and then.

Then there are those who learn painting 100x faster than someone and learns rules and understands them and becomes master painter in year or two while for majority its always struggle.

 

And when do you get in your head only reason why moonwater trans stones are currently as low as they're because majority of idiotic crafters are undercutting and caused this effect. Undercutting cannot be avoided unless 100% of players understands that its stupid to undercut. No seller in history of humans would ever want make less profit than they could. Which will never happen but it still wont change the fact that anyone who undercuts is idiot

[MGT]

Just now, Ninfu said:

Buyers pov is useless in this matter.  Buyer is almost always wiser if they can get certain product cheaper with no effort at all. Ofc theres things that effects buyers decision where to buy stuff other than just how much its cost but then there are those who rather spent hours running around so they can save up few dollars / euros.

 

And you say that others fighting to sell their stones thats why they're undercutting. Sadly thats true that players are idiots and decides to undercutt just because they dont think hard enough thats why players who actually spent 1% of their brainpower to think make more money with stones than those who're idiots. And because of these idiots prices have dropped to point theres almost no profit at all and its just waste of time making them.

 

So people wanting to sell their items less that you are bad and need to go away?. In order to sell their product they need to sell it cheaper. Unless we have the big Cabal of merchants get together and price fix everything to make the margins THEY want. This happens enough in real life as it is, and REGARDLESS of what you think an item is worth someone will always want to pay less, so they don't buy so you have to drop your prices to sell an item, (rinse repeat). How many times in MMO's do you see folk begging in trade chat for even 10g less than it is in market? (And these guys prolly have thousands of gold anyway). Any item I come across that I don't need I will sell cheaper than someone else, even if it is something people need I will still sell it cheaper than someone else. And be honest if you can get something cheaper you are not going to pay anymore than you have to right?

[Astrohawke]

Ninfu is stupid baby who thinks people should price stuff at the price he wants to sell and they are stupid if they don't rofl. Welcome to the real world.

[Sylvaeril]

So basically what you're saying is the same as I've been saying in game for a while.

 

m stones start expensive, traders and crafters are happy. more begin to craft it as need increases, and start to foolishly undersell. 

Now the crafters are upset because the margins and gold gained aren't nearly worth the effort.

 

Now where people go wrong is where they think "oh the crafters are already making them so they'll just sell for cheaper and cheaper, so easier for everyone." Here is the issue with that thinking though. The crafters wont bother putting any on the market if they don't think it is worth the returns.

 

Yes, they will continue to craft stones, and they will save those for their own personal use.

 

Eventually you will see a severe lack of stones especially as the next few patches get released. Until you get to a spot where anyone who wants a stone will need to craft it on their own.

 

That is the issue with the undersellers. Now I agree the prices started of hyper inflated, but as the price continues to fall eventually we will meet a critical point where only a few people will be crafting stones and they wont be able to keep up with supply. Now you might be asking "but we have lots of supply now, why would that change?"

 

Think of this, if you begin to make items to make a tidy profit and it takes days just to lvl your crafting/gathering, and another few days to acquire all the mats you need for one batch. Then after you got your first batch and you find out the price isn't even 1/6th of what it was, you might sell that one batch ya. But after that, would you want to farm for days for just 10g when the stones hit 1 g each?

 

Of course not, because it takes days to farm all of those soulstones as is. So the solution? For crafters it's easy, stop trying and just make them when you can and save them for yourself.

 

For buyers and ppl who need the stones? Well I guess you better start lvling.

[BigBabyGeezuz]

It's the winter boxes in the marketplace that drop moonwater stones that are driving the price down. People are selling stones for 4Gs that they got from boxes and screwing over the crafters. What a disaster for crafting in this game...

[Sylvaeril]

10 minutes ago, BigBabyGeezuz said:

It's the winter boxes in the marketplace that drop moonwater stones that are driving the price down. People are selling stones for 4Gs that they got from boxes and screwing over the crafters. What a disaster for crafting in this game...

Bullshit, i bought a bunch of those boxes, didnt get a single stone dude, got a few soulstones but thats it. No tstones at all. And even before the winter boxes people were driving the price down in a hurry.

[BigBabyGeezuz]

32 minutes ago, Sylvaeril said:

Bullshit, i bought a bunch of those boxes, didnt get a single stone dude, got a few soulstones but thats it. No tstones at all. And even before the winter boxes people were driving the price down in a hurry.

You sound bitter about wasting your money but I'll take your personal experience as factual evidence that there are no stones from the boxes being sold on the marketplace. GG

[Sylvaeril]

7 minutes ago, BigBabyGeezuz said:

You sound bitter about wasting your money but I'll take your personal experience as factual evidence that there are no stones from the boxes being sold on the marketplace. GG

I actually am really happy with what i got, I'm saying that about 4 days ago prices on hajoon at least were about 7 gold, yesterday, day of rng boxes they got down to 4.5-4 gold. The days before that they were going down in price already tho. so the rng boxes are not to blame.

 

Its people undercutting.

[Polite]

12 minutes ago, Sylvaeril said:

I actually am really happy with what i got, I'm saying that about 4 days ago prices on hajoon at least were about 7 gold, yesterday, day of rng boxes they got down to 4.5-4 gold. The days before that they were going down in price already tho. so the rng boxes are not to blame.

 

Its people undercutting.

yea its a mix of undercutting and also its the fact that the market is cross server its just more competition but oh well

[BigBabyGeezuz]

The price is down to 3.80G. If you look at the marketplace graphs you can see that it was slightly going down before the RNG boxes, and afterwards there's a steeper decline. It's not just crafters undercutting each other.

[Ninfu]

2 hours ago, Polite said:

yea its a mix of undercutting and also its the fact that the market is cross server its just more competition but oh well

Actually this has huge impact. While currently those retarded boxes that i wish never existed are effecting them too but region wide market is what destroyed prices. Why?

 

In other MMORPG games that doesnt have this features theres certain amount of idiots per realm just lets use magic number 10% of server population and lets take 1k players per server.

So each server has that 100 guys who has no clue how to make profit with professions and keep being idiots which causes them to undercut others. With server based market the drop for stones would but multiple times slower than in region wide market.

 

Now that we have region wide. Lets say theres 10 servers so 10k players in total. Now we have 1k idiots undercutting everyone everyday which causes stones to drop huge amount of cash while theres higher deman theres just too many idiots.

 

Sadly we cant do anything either can NCsoft. Those who have already realised its not worth of crafting more stones than what you might need or even then it might be just easier just go to market and buy underpriced stones. Easy time to be buyer and bad time to be seller. Maybe i should just throw Soul Wardens away and take rng gembox prof to make better profit.

[Polite]

3 minutes ago, Ninfu said:

Actually this has huge impact. While currently those retarded boxes that i wish never existed are effecting them too but region wide market is what destroyed prices. Why?

 

In other MMORPG games that doesnt have this features theres certain amount of idiots per realm just lets use magic number 10% of server population and lets take 1k players per server.

So each server has that 100 guys who has no clue how to make profit with professions and keep being idiots which causes them to undercut others. With server based market the drop for stones would but multiple times slower than in region wide market.

 

Now that we have region wide. Lets say theres 10 servers so 10k players in total. Now we have 1k idiots undercutting everyone everyday which causes stones to drop huge amount of cash while theres higher deman theres just too many idiots.

 

Sadly we cant do anything either can NCsoft. Those who have already realised its not worth of crafting more stones than what you might need or even then it might be just easier just go to market and buy underpriced stones. Easy time to be buyer and bad time to be seller. Maybe i should just throw Soul Wardens away and take rng gembox prof to make better profit.

never said it destroyed the market but if you think for a sec, more players on market = more surplus in items = people undercutting = prices to crash regardless moonwater stones shouldn't be anymore than 1g because thats how it is in other regions of the game

 

[Ninfu]

1 minute ago, Polite said:

never said it destroyed the market but if you think for a sec, more players on market = more surplus in items = people undercutting = prices to crash regardless moonwater stones shouldn't be anymore than 1g because thats how it is in other regions of the game

 

But i said they destroyed.

 

Stones where for long time lot higher and ofc they're 1g now at other regions because they're in next expansion stage when theres new stones. So you cant just assume that just moonwater stones would stay high prices when theres next stones available

[Hazgaz]

5 hours ago, Shorsh said:

You even playing NA/EU version of BNS?

You dont get stone from any survey.. 

Going back and checking, I got it during headstart, hit 45 before launch.  

[Lordzero2]

13 hours ago, gewd said:

 

You are stupid.

 

100 soulstones cost 31g yesterday.

 

You cannot use today's cost because it takes 24 hours to make.

 

This means you made 4.8 - (31-22) =  negative 4.2g

 

This kind of sloppy thinking is why the price is plummeting below profitability.

are you a tard? im talking about US SERVER PRICES and those prices were what I mentioned when I purchased the materials for the batch I mentioned.  You are the one being sloppy by not reading my post properly.  Nice way to resort to personal attacks though

[Sylvaeril]

8 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

are you a tard? im talking about US SERVER PRICES and those prices were what I mentioned when I purchased the materials for the batch I mentioned.  You are the one being sloppy by not reading my post properly.  Nice way to resort to personal attacks though

LOL ironic considering what you just posted. I agree with you, but don't attack then criticize him for the same thing in the same post dude...

[gewd]

47 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

are you a tard? im talking about US SERVER PRICES and those prices were what I mentioned when I purchased the materials for the batch I mentioned.  You are the one being sloppy by not reading my post properly.  Nice way to resort to personal attacks though

You are the one that is retarded.

 

I quoted US server prices too. Where did I say I quoted EU prices?

 

You cannot use today's mat prices to calculate your profit today because in 24 hours (the amount of time it takes for your MTS to finish crafting) the price will plunge yet again. As I am speaking the MTS are now below 4g which means if you started crafting them yesterday, you make 5g less than expected, and it hasn't been 24 hours yet. I suspect once it has been 24 hours the prices will plunge even further.

 

38 minutes ago, Sylvaeril said:

LOL ironic considering what you just posted. I agree with you, but don't attack then criticize him for the same thing in the same post dude...

 

 

This... lol

[Lordzero2]

56 minutes ago, Sylvaeril said:

LOL ironic considering what you just posted. I agree with you, but don't attack then criticize him for the same thing in the same post dude...

i only attacked because he attacked me, I have not attacked a single person who did not start by attacking me first.

[Lordzero2]

21 minutes ago, gewd said:

You are the one that is retarded.

 

I quoted US server prices too. Where did I say I quoted EU prices?

 

You cannot use today's mat prices to calculate your profit today because in 24 hours (the amount of time it takes for your MTS to finish crafting) the price will plunge yet again. As I am speaking the MTS are now below 4g which means if you started crafting them yesterday, you make 5g less than expected, and it hasn't been 24 hours yet. I suspect once it has been 24 hours the prices will plunge even further.

 

 

 

This... lol

I am also quoting US prices, when I buy the mats I record the prices I bought them at in a notebook since I am tracking prices at the moment manually.  Then the next day when I sell them I record the price I sold them at.  I have no idea where you are getting this ridiculous 32 number from.

 

Also one thing I have learned is in the morning and mid day the prices drop a little bit but at night when my stones are made they bounce back a tiny bit. plus you can sell them individually 10s above the stated price and they still sell fast.  By my calculations I will not make much profit this round and honestly I might skip a 24 hour round to see what is going to happen now.  Before this specific 24 hour round I have been making atleast 70silver per stone.

 

Yesterday when I was buying mats to craft I projected my profits under the assumption that stones would drop to 3.9-4g each since I knew they would be below 4.3g each.  My projected profits were still positive so I made them.

[Sylvaeril]

9 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

I am also quoting US prices, when I buy the mats I record the prices I bought them at in a notebook since I am tracking prices at the moment manually.  Then the next day when I sell them I record the price I sold them at.  I have no idea where you are getting this ridiculous 32 number from.

 

Also one thing I have learned is in the morning and mid day the prices drop a little bit but at night when my stones are made they bounce back a tiny bit. plus you can sell them individually 10s above the stated price and they still sell fast.  By my calculations I will not make much profit this round and honestly I might skip a 24 hour round to see what is going to happen now.  Before this specific 24 hour round I have been making atleast 70silver per stone.

 

Yesterday when I was buying mats to craft I projected my profits under the assumption that stones would drop to 3.9-4g each since I knew they would be below 4.3g each.  My projected profits were still positive so I made them.

Do you farm for any of the mats, or buy them all?

[Lordzero2]

Anyway to post my current opinion of moonwater transformation stones as of the past 2 days here are my thoughts.

 

Moonwater quartz will continue to rise in price (probably not super fast but it will not go down)  (see further below for my explanation on why

 

Moonwater tears show no indications of going below 37s each reliably and might even go up in price  (see further below for my explanation on why)

 

Premium refiners so far have been balancing out around 1.5g each but I do not think they will go down very heavily in price anymore due to moonwater tears and moonwater quartz potentially rising in price, this could possibly get balanced out by soulstones going down in price but I am not optimistic about it.

 

Soulstones have shown a huge reduction in price over the week probably because a lot of people hit 45 and want to make gold to upgrade, ocne they reach the part where they need soulstones to level their weapons the price will probably rebound but for now they will probably continue to decrease in price.

 

All of this taken into account with the constant devaluing of moonwater transformation stones means that soon (VERY soon) they will not be worth making and become a negative profit)  however once this happens the supply will drop and demand will stay the same so they will rebound (depending on how many transformation stones the new rng boxes drop of course) 

 

Since moonwater transformation stones are needed by everyone and can only be made by players the price will always even out to a slight profit otherwise people (besides idiots i guess) will not make them.

 

Explanations on my moonwater quartz and moonwater tears predictions:

 

Moonwater Quartz:

Moonwater quartz will go up in price I gaurentee it, this is because of moonwater pickaxes.  Right now the price of moonwater pickaxes are very low because of the free ones from leveling and people finding them in boxes(they seem pretty rare from boxes though)  None of the moonwater picks on the AH are crafted ones, this is because a crafted pick needs 12 hours AND 3 soulstones. for ONE.  Once most people are done leveling to 45 the freebies will stop hitting the auction house so supply will go down, but obviously for crafting we need quartz so demand will not go down nearly as much.  To craft a pickaxe at profit it will need to sell for (probably) around 70s each maybe more.  For a pickaxe at this price to sell quartz needs to go up in price (who would buy a 70s pickaxe if they couldnt make profit off it?) so quartz will most likely rise to atleast 70% of the pickaxe price meaning if a pickaxe is 70s a quartz will be 49 silver each.  Given this I cannot possibly see quartz staying at the current price of 8s each.

 

For moonwater tears:

The only way to get moonwater tears is to bid for them from the dungeons.  In 70% of parties people will know the approximate going price for moonwater tears on the AH.  What this means is the bid wars will almost always go to 80% of the AH price (sometimes 90%) since people want them below ah price to make a profit.  With this being the case there is an effective floor on the going price of moonwater tears.  Obviously no one is going to sell them below the amount they had to bid on the tear in the dungeon.  Because of this I can only see tears continuing to slowly rise in price until they peak.

[gewd]

21 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

I am also quoting US prices, when I buy the mats I record the prices I bought them at in a notebook since I am tracking prices at the moment manually.  Then the next day when I sell them I record the price I sold them at.  I have no idea where you are getting this ridiculous 32 number from.

 

Also one thing I have learned is in the morning and mid day the prices drop a little bit but at night when my stones are made they bounce back a tiny bit. plus you can sell them individually 10s above the stated price and they still sell fast.  By my calculations I will not make much profit this round and honestly I might skip a 24 hour round to see what is going to happen now.  Before this specific 24 hour round I have been making atleast 70silver per stone.

 

Oh really now you are just making things up. Where did I say 32? Here's where I get my "ridiculous" prices.

 

 

It doesn't really matter if it was really 31,30, or 29, the price sure as hell weren't anywhere near 22s on tuesday.

 

21 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

you can sell them individually 10s above the stated price and they still sell fast

 

Wow you made 93 silver extra by sitting on the tp and wasting 10 slots.

 

21 minutes ago, Lordzero2 said:

By my calculations I will not make much profit this round and honestly I might skip a 24 hour round to see what is going to happen now.

 

And this is what I've been saying....

[Lordzero2]

3 minutes ago, gewd said:

 

Oh really now you are just making things up. Where did I say 32? Here's where I get my "ridiculous" prices.

 

 

It doesn't really matter if it was really 31,30, or 29, the price sure as hell weren't anywhere near 22s on tuesday.

 

 

Wow you made 93 silver extra by sitting on the tp and wasting 10 slots.

 

 

And this is what I've been saying....

im premium with 30 sell slots, i can afford to do that. and like ive said before no other profession can make 4-5g a day from its professions and 10 sale slots.  stop being spoiled.

 

Second, I dont know what to tell you, 2 days ago i bought soulstones at 22 silver each, that is the truth believe it if you want I dont care.

 

Lastly, moonwater stones will ALWAYS bounce back because only players can craft them, and if players cant make any profit at all they wont make them, its simple.

[Chesnya]

Yall need to believe in the lort and stock up on your perfumes cos its going to sky rocket in 50patch, even though they drop a bit more in silverfrost mts u need like alooot. BUY THEM WHILE THEY'RE CHEAP 

 

#blessed #yww #hullo

[Nutrient]

12 hours ago, Nocte said:

And now I'm so glad I bought 400 Poharan's Perfume for 8s before people realized you need 140 of them for endgame weapon. I'll leave the stone market to idiots now.

Are you sure about that? I've been reading BNS INVEN but it's just about 20 perfumes on breakthrough. Where are you getting we need 400?

 

45 Belt http://bns.inven.co.kr/dataninfo/item/detail.php?code=17180690320

45 Bracelet http://bns.inven.co.kr/dataninfo/item/detail.php?code=821133

Poharan's Perfume http://bns.inven.co.kr/dataninfo/item/detail.php?code=811536

 

Am I missing something?