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Weapon Upgrade Chests and Class (Golden Deva Specifically)


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Is the game specifically designed such that when you open a chest (let's say for instance the Golden Deva Chest received from the wheel in the Scorching Sands) that the odds of getting your particular weapon for your class are lower than the 1/8 you expect it to be?


If it's designed this way, fine. If it's not, something is seriously wrong with the Assassin class and Golden Deva Dagger drop. I've seen multiple accounts of it taking 30+ keys in order to get this item. One poor soul took 50 keys, another 47 keys. 


I'm currently at 31 keys and I refuse to believe that my luck is this bad. It's either specifically designed this way, or this particular scenario is bugged. 


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So I decided to calculate the odds of this actually happening, given the assumed 1/8 chance of the box. 


I've opened 44 chests in order to receive my Golden Deva Dagger, and I still don't have it.


The probability of getting the dagger from 44 trials, assuming the above 1/8 is true, is quite literally 99.71922%.


This means that somehow the likely hood of what has occurred to me, and many others is 0.0028078%. An obscenely small amount.


Absolute BS, something is wrong here or it is intentionally created this way.


Attached in the image is proof, I've done all calculations in Matlab doing a sample brute force technique of comparing all possible permutations with combinations that have at least one '1' in them (which represents the Deva Dagger) with Bernoulli's trial formula to prove it's accuracy.




I highly doubt this is coincidence given that my friend literally just opened his Golden Deva Gauntlet on his first roll, and that many Assassins have been faced with this issue.


**Edit--> My friend even accidentally infused his Golden Deva Gauntlet, and still had no problems receiving a second one. Clearly there's something wrong here.



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I have also opened 36 weapon chest and have not received a single Deva dagger, but plenty of weapons for each of the other classes though. From what I've experienced it is hard to believe that opening a chest provides a random weapon. It feels more like they have programmed an algorithm to lower the chances of getting the specific weapon you require. All this is really putting me off from playing the game and i'm only lvl 29, buying keys are expensive at this lvl and I've already run out. Either way I will give this a few more tries if not then this game can go in the bin!

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